September CPI is due tonight at 20:30.
Market consensus: headline CPI is expected to rise 0.6% month over month and 3.6% year over year, driven mainly by gasoline prices climbing more than 7%. But core CPI is expected to rise just 0.2% month over month.
The real focus is whether core CPI can hold at 0.2%.
Three possible outcomes, three reactions:
Core CPI at 0.2% → Rate-hike pressure eases, and everyone can breathe a little easier.
BTC: Watch 84,500 to the upside; if it breaks above that, next up is 87,700
ETH: More upside potential in a rebound than BTC; first, watch whether it can break 2,600
Gold: Hold 4,100; above 4,200, watch for 4,300
Core CPI at 0.3% or higher → Fears of inflation spreading reignite, and nobody gets off easy.
BTC: Watch 80,000 to the downside; if it breaks, next stop is 77,400
ETH: It also faces selling pressure from 850,000 ETH unlocking, so a drop could hurt more. Watch 2,400 below
Gold: If it falls below 4,100, watch 4,050, then 3,970
Headline CPI is high, but core is steady → The market sees through the headline number as an oil-price issue, and a relief rally may follow as the bad news is priced in.
Tonight, keep your eye on core CPI at 0.2%, not the 3.6% headline figure. We’ll know at 20:30. $XAU $BTC $ETH #比特币突破8.4万美元 #比特币市占率回升至60%
Market consensus: headline CPI is expected to rise 0.6% month over month and 3.6% year over year, driven mainly by gasoline prices climbing more than 7%. But core CPI is expected to rise just 0.2% month over month.
The real focus is whether core CPI can hold at 0.2%.
Three possible outcomes, three reactions:
Core CPI at 0.2% → Rate-hike pressure eases, and everyone can breathe a little easier.
BTC: Watch 84,500 to the upside; if it breaks above that, next up is 87,700
ETH: More upside potential in a rebound than BTC; first, watch whether it can break 2,600
Gold: Hold 4,100; above 4,200, watch for 4,300
Core CPI at 0.3% or higher → Fears of inflation spreading reignite, and nobody gets off easy.
BTC: Watch 80,000 to the downside; if it breaks, next stop is 77,400
ETH: It also faces selling pressure from 850,000 ETH unlocking, so a drop could hurt more. Watch 2,400 below
Gold: If it falls below 4,100, watch 4,050, then 3,970
Headline CPI is high, but core is steady → The market sees through the headline number as an oil-price issue, and a relief rally may follow as the bad news is priced in.
Tonight, keep your eye on core CPI at 0.2%, not the 3.6% headline figure. We’ll know at 20:30. $XAU $BTC $ETH #比特币突破8.4万美元 #比特币市占率回升至60%