【When the market gets boring, a reversal may be just around the corner】
ETH traded sideways just like this in the fall of 2019. After rising for several months, it pulled back more than 30%, then spent a full two months grinding between $150 and $200. Voices in the community went from “the bull market is over” to “this is the bottom,” and finally to “can it rally again?” And what happened? Two months later, a 40% surge left everyone who was sitting on the sidelines kicking themselves.
Does ETH look familiar now?
On the daily chart, the pullback from February’s high of $2,800 isn’t over yet, but there isn’t much room left to fall. I’ve been watching the $2,437 support level for a long time—it’s not an arbitrary line; it marks the upper edge of the high-volume trading range from December last year through January this year. Below that, buyers are also likely to defend the psychological $2,500 mark.
The four-hour structure tells us even more. The highs have been getting lower over the past week, but the lows haven’t made new lows. What about volume? It has contracted over the past 24 hours to below its recent average, so selling pressure really isn’t that strong. This kind of price action means either the big players are shaking out the market, or the market is waiting for a catalyst.
The one-hour chart is the clearest: price is squeezed inside a converging triangle, with resistance at $2,584 and support at $2,440. The range is getting narrower and narrower. I’ve seen this pattern countless times—once it reaches its tightest point, price either breaks upward or dips lower before turning around. But there’s one detail worth noting this time: when BTC plunged last night, ETH didn’t follow. Instead, it held above $2,500 overnight on declining volume. What does that tell us? Buyers may not be particularly strong, but there are people willing to step in at this level.
On the news front, Russia’s Sberbank is planning to offer ETH trading, bringing real additional demand. Volatility in South Korea’s AI-related stocks is spilling over into crypto markets, but that’s a short-term sentiment-driven disturbance and doesn’t change the medium-term direction.
From a business perspective, ETH’s position in the ecosystem is solid—DeFi total value locked and staking volumes are both substantial, and the RWA narrative provides further support. If it really falls below $2,300, that would give institutions a chance to build long-term positions.
Here’s how the bulls and bears are thinking: bulls are watching the $2,437 support and will stop out if it breaks; bears are watching to see whether $2,584 can hold as resistance on strong volume.
My take? With this converging structure, an upside breakout seems more likely. But it needs to be backed by volume—if volume is weak when price breaks above $2,584, it could well be a false breakout, leaving the bears to turn the tables.
So the real question is: do you think ETH will break out this time with strong volume, or keep grinding sideways?
ETH traded sideways just like this in the fall of 2019. After rising for several months, it pulled back more than 30%, then spent a full two months grinding between $150 and $200. Voices in the community went from “the bull market is over” to “this is the bottom,” and finally to “can it rally again?” And what happened? Two months later, a 40% surge left everyone who was sitting on the sidelines kicking themselves.
Does ETH look familiar now?
On the daily chart, the pullback from February’s high of $2,800 isn’t over yet, but there isn’t much room left to fall. I’ve been watching the $2,437 support level for a long time—it’s not an arbitrary line; it marks the upper edge of the high-volume trading range from December last year through January this year. Below that, buyers are also likely to defend the psychological $2,500 mark.
The four-hour structure tells us even more. The highs have been getting lower over the past week, but the lows haven’t made new lows. What about volume? It has contracted over the past 24 hours to below its recent average, so selling pressure really isn’t that strong. This kind of price action means either the big players are shaking out the market, or the market is waiting for a catalyst.
The one-hour chart is the clearest: price is squeezed inside a converging triangle, with resistance at $2,584 and support at $2,440. The range is getting narrower and narrower. I’ve seen this pattern countless times—once it reaches its tightest point, price either breaks upward or dips lower before turning around. But there’s one detail worth noting this time: when BTC plunged last night, ETH didn’t follow. Instead, it held above $2,500 overnight on declining volume. What does that tell us? Buyers may not be particularly strong, but there are people willing to step in at this level.
On the news front, Russia’s Sberbank is planning to offer ETH trading, bringing real additional demand. Volatility in South Korea’s AI-related stocks is spilling over into crypto markets, but that’s a short-term sentiment-driven disturbance and doesn’t change the medium-term direction.
From a business perspective, ETH’s position in the ecosystem is solid—DeFi total value locked and staking volumes are both substantial, and the RWA narrative provides further support. If it really falls below $2,300, that would give institutions a chance to build long-term positions.
Here’s how the bulls and bears are thinking: bulls are watching the $2,437 support and will stop out if it breaks; bears are watching to see whether $2,584 can hold as resistance on strong volume.
My take? With this converging structure, an upside breakout seems more likely. But it needs to be backed by volume—if volume is weak when price breaks above $2,584, it could well be a false breakout, leaving the bears to turn the tables.
So the real question is: do you think ETH will break out this time with strong volume, or keep grinding sideways?