Tonight at 8:30 p.m.: September CPI. Core CPI at 0.2% or 0.3% month over month—that’s the tipping point.
First, the forecast:
Headline CPI could jump from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, rising 0.6% month over month—the biggest increase in nearly five months. The main driver is a rebound in energy prices.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month, slightly below last month’s 0.3%.
Why is this report so important?
Because it’s the last inflation report before the Fed’s October 27–28 policy meeting. According to CME data, markets are currently pricing in only about a 17% chance of a rate hike.
But don’t forget the backdrop: Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in August, directly setting the stage for the September FOMC’s first rate hike in more than three years. The odds briefly surged to 70% at the time. Now they’re down to 17%—markets are betting this round of tightening will be a one-off, not the start of a sustained series of hikes.
So tonight, there’s just one number to watch: core CPI month over month.
If it holds at 0.2%: The Fed will most likely stay put and push a rate hike to December. Markets can breathe a sigh of relief.
If it jumps to 0.3%: Rate-hike expectations will heat up again immediately, and the October meeting will be back in focus.
CICC had already identified 0.3% as the threshold for restarting hikes. Markets are now betting on a “one-off recalibration,” not a new round of tightening.
PPI follows on Thursday. Together, the two reports will shape the market’s view of inflation and the Fed’s path.
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
First, the forecast:
Headline CPI could jump from 3.4% to 3.6% year over year, rising 0.6% month over month—the biggest increase in nearly five months. The main driver is a rebound in energy prices.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month, slightly below last month’s 0.3%.
Why is this report so important?
Because it’s the last inflation report before the Fed’s October 27–28 policy meeting. According to CME data, markets are currently pricing in only about a 17% chance of a rate hike.
But don’t forget the backdrop: Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in August, directly setting the stage for the September FOMC’s first rate hike in more than three years. The odds briefly surged to 70% at the time. Now they’re down to 17%—markets are betting this round of tightening will be a one-off, not the start of a sustained series of hikes.
So tonight, there’s just one number to watch: core CPI month over month.
If it holds at 0.2%: The Fed will most likely stay put and push a rate hike to December. Markets can breathe a sigh of relief.
If it jumps to 0.3%: Rate-hike expectations will heat up again immediately, and the October meeting will be back in focus.
CICC had already identified 0.3% as the threshold for restarting hikes. Markets are now betting on a “one-off recalibration,” not a new round of tightening.
PPI follows on Thursday. Together, the two reports will shape the market’s view of inflation and the Fed’s path.
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何