The market can’t even be bothered to bet on the Fed’s October rate decision anymore.
CME, Kalshi, and Polymarket are all putting the odds of “no change in October” at around 80% now.
Back in September, it was a toss-up right up until the final week.
The market’s current view: an October pause is basically priced in, and BTC has been trading in a narrow range since late September.
The thing is, a pause doesn’t mean it’s over. The Fed could still hike again in December, and long-term Treasury yields are at multi-decade highs.
If tonight’s CPI comes in a little hotter, can those 80% odds hold? 🫣
CME, Kalshi, and Polymarket are all putting the odds of “no change in October” at around 80% now.
Back in September, it was a toss-up right up until the final week.
The market’s current view: an October pause is basically priced in, and BTC has been trading in a narrow range since late September.
The thing is, a pause doesn’t mean it’s over. The Fed could still hike again in December, and long-term Treasury yields are at multi-decade highs.
If tonight’s CPI comes in a little hotter, can those 80% odds hold? 🫣