ASML earnings｜Profits explode, but the stock gets crushed? I actually think this dip is a gift 🤔
$ASML just reported: net profit of €4.96 billion and EPS of 12.95, versus market expectations of around 10.7. But after the perpetual futures were announced, the price plunged to 1,640 and is now hovering around 1,680.
Let’s check my predictions. In my post this morning, I guessed revenue would be €12 billion. Actual revenue was €11.66 billion, slightly below the expected €11.7 billion. I got that one wrong—fair enough.
I guessed a gross margin of 57%; actual was 57.5%, above the top end of guidance ✅
I guessed full-year guidance would be raised. In reality, the range narrowed from €43–45 billion to €44–45 billion, and gross margin guidance rose to around 56%. So I got half of that right.
The company didn’t give a specific order figure this quarter (they stopped reporting it separately this year), but the CEO said something significant: capacity in both 2027 and 2028 won’t be enough to meet customer demand, and some customers are already looking to place orders for 2029 or even 2030.
Q4 revenue guidance is €14.2–15.2 billion, with the midpoint above the market’s €14.2 billion estimate.
So why the drop? Honestly, it’s that tiny revenue miss, plus the entire chip sector getting hit over the past couple of days by concerns about Chinese competition and AI financing. The stock has already pulled back around 11% from 1,890 in early October.
Look at the chart: the green line at 1,640 is today’s intraday low. If it holds, this is just a shakeout; the red line at 1,750 is where it broke down a couple of days ago. It’ll only count as a recovery if the price gets back above it. If it falls below 1,640, I’ll admit I’m wrong and look at 1,600 next.
$TSM reports tomorrow. ASML says demand is booked out through 2030, so TSMC is unlikely to go soft on capex, and memory stocks like Micron are being swept along by the same sentiment.
Capacity is sold out through the year after next, and people are still panic-selling. I’m bullish—I’d rather wait for a pullback to buy this dip 😂
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
#ASML #美股财报 #Chips
$ASML just reported: net profit of €4.96 billion and EPS of 12.95, versus market expectations of around 10.7. But after the perpetual futures were announced, the price plunged to 1,640 and is now hovering around 1,680.
Let’s check my predictions. In my post this morning, I guessed revenue would be €12 billion. Actual revenue was €11.66 billion, slightly below the expected €11.7 billion. I got that one wrong—fair enough.
I guessed a gross margin of 57%; actual was 57.5%, above the top end of guidance ✅
I guessed full-year guidance would be raised. In reality, the range narrowed from €43–45 billion to €44–45 billion, and gross margin guidance rose to around 56%. So I got half of that right.
The company didn’t give a specific order figure this quarter (they stopped reporting it separately this year), but the CEO said something significant: capacity in both 2027 and 2028 won’t be enough to meet customer demand, and some customers are already looking to place orders for 2029 or even 2030.
Q4 revenue guidance is €14.2–15.2 billion, with the midpoint above the market’s €14.2 billion estimate.
So why the drop? Honestly, it’s that tiny revenue miss, plus the entire chip sector getting hit over the past couple of days by concerns about Chinese competition and AI financing. The stock has already pulled back around 11% from 1,890 in early October.
Look at the chart: the green line at 1,640 is today’s intraday low. If it holds, this is just a shakeout; the red line at 1,750 is where it broke down a couple of days ago. It’ll only count as a recovery if the price gets back above it. If it falls below 1,640, I’ll admit I’m wrong and look at 1,600 next.
$TSM reports tomorrow. ASML says demand is booked out through 2030, so TSMC is unlikely to go soft on capex, and memory stocks like Micron are being swept along by the same sentiment.
Capacity is sold out through the year after next, and people are still panic-selling. I’m bullish—I’d rather wait for a pullback to buy this dip 😂
⚠️Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
#ASML #美股财报 #Chips