At 8:30 tonight, the U.S. September CPI report comes out. Everyone is watching inflation, but what they’re really watching is oil.
First, oil. Brent is now $106 a barrel, compared with just over $60 around this time last year. Since fighting broke out in Iran, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked every day. This week, the Houthis also struck Saudi Aramco’s headquarters.
When oil gets more expensive, gas prices go up first. In August, gasoline in the U.S. cost nearly 30% more than a year earlier, pushing headline CPI to 3.4%. This month, the market expects it to jump to 3.7%.
But there’s one figure that few people pay attention to. Excluding energy and food, core inflation was only 2.4% in August, and it’s still expected to be 2.4% this month. It hasn’t budged at all.
Put simply, this round of inflation is almost entirely being driven by oil.
That’s the Fed’s worst-case scenario. It’s already raised rates once in September, the first hike since 2023. But rate hikes can rein in spending; they can’t stop missiles in the Middle East. If oil prices don’t come down, CPI won’t come down either.
So the market can only bet on one thing: another hike. Nearly 90% of traders are now betting on another increase in December.
U.S. Treasuries are the first to feel the strain. The 10-year yield is at 5.21%, after coming close to a 24-year high earlier this month.
That figure is a major problem for crypto. You can earn more than 5% just by parking your money in Treasuries, so naturally people are less willing to take risks. Bitcoin has tried and failed four times to break above $84,000 in recent days. That’s the underlying reason.
Tonight, there are just two numbers to watch.
If headline CPI comes in above 3.7% and core inflation also moves higher, that would mean oil prices are starting to spill over into other areas. Rate-hike expectations will rise again, Treasury yields could hit 5.3%, and Bitcoin will probably have to move lower.
If headline CPI is high but core inflation stays at 2.4%, then it’s just an oil story. The Fed probably won’t hike at its meeting later this month, Treasuries can catch their breath, and Bitcoin may get some relief too. #9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
$BTC
First, oil. Brent is now $106 a barrel, compared with just over $60 around this time last year. Since fighting broke out in Iran, oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked every day. This week, the Houthis also struck Saudi Aramco’s headquarters.
When oil gets more expensive, gas prices go up first. In August, gasoline in the U.S. cost nearly 30% more than a year earlier, pushing headline CPI to 3.4%. This month, the market expects it to jump to 3.7%.
But there’s one figure that few people pay attention to. Excluding energy and food, core inflation was only 2.4% in August, and it’s still expected to be 2.4% this month. It hasn’t budged at all.
Put simply, this round of inflation is almost entirely being driven by oil.
That’s the Fed’s worst-case scenario. It’s already raised rates once in September, the first hike since 2023. But rate hikes can rein in spending; they can’t stop missiles in the Middle East. If oil prices don’t come down, CPI won’t come down either.
So the market can only bet on one thing: another hike. Nearly 90% of traders are now betting on another increase in December.
U.S. Treasuries are the first to feel the strain. The 10-year yield is at 5.21%, after coming close to a 24-year high earlier this month.
That figure is a major problem for crypto. You can earn more than 5% just by parking your money in Treasuries, so naturally people are less willing to take risks. Bitcoin has tried and failed four times to break above $84,000 in recent days. That’s the underlying reason.
Tonight, there are just two numbers to watch.
If headline CPI comes in above 3.7% and core inflation also moves higher, that would mean oil prices are starting to spill over into other areas. Rate-hike expectations will rise again, Treasury yields could hit 5.3%, and Bitcoin will probably have to move lower.
If headline CPI is high but core inflation stays at 2.4%, then it’s just an oil story. The Fed probably won’t hike at its meeting later this month, Treasuries can catch their breath, and Bitcoin may get some relief too. #9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
$BTC