Silver is down another 3%. With CPI coming out tonight, is this a chance to buy the dip—or catch a falling knife?
Silver $XAG | Back at a two-month low on the eve of CPI
Binance perpetuals are currently trading at 58.72, down 3.3% over 24 hours. The intraday low was 58.69—almost scraping the floor. On the 4H chart, around 58.7 is the lowest point of the past 30 candles, while the area around 61.2 is the first resistance above. Recent bounces have been repeatedly pushed back there.
My reasoning: The Fed just raised rates in September, and the market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another hike in December. Silver pays no interest, so it suffers when rate expectations turn hawkish. Also, the gold/silver ratio has climbed to around 70, meaning silver is much weaker than gold.
Things to watch tonight:
1. 20:30 (Hong Kong time): U.S. September CPI. The market expects 3.6% year over year, versus 3.4% previously.
2. PPI and retail sales on Thursday
3. Warsh’s speech at the IMF on Friday
Scenarios: If CPI comes in hot and core CPI exceeds expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields will rise. If 58.7 fails to hold, the next stop is 57. If CPI comes in soft, silver could rebound to 60–61.2, but I won’t chase it before it clears 61.2.
I’m leaning bearish, but staying cautious: if it bounces to around 61 and fails to break through, I’ll remain bearish. If it cools after CPI and rises above 61.2 on strong volume, I’ll admit I was wrong.
⚠️ Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
#白银 #黄金 #CPI
$XAG $XAU
Silver $XAG | Back at a two-month low on the eve of CPI
Binance perpetuals are currently trading at 58.72, down 3.3% over 24 hours. The intraday low was 58.69—almost scraping the floor. On the 4H chart, around 58.7 is the lowest point of the past 30 candles, while the area around 61.2 is the first resistance above. Recent bounces have been repeatedly pushed back there.
My reasoning: The Fed just raised rates in September, and the market is pricing in nearly a 90% chance of another hike in December. Silver pays no interest, so it suffers when rate expectations turn hawkish. Also, the gold/silver ratio has climbed to around 70, meaning silver is much weaker than gold.
Things to watch tonight:
1. 20:30 (Hong Kong time): U.S. September CPI. The market expects 3.6% year over year, versus 3.4% previously.
2. PPI and retail sales on Thursday
3. Warsh’s speech at the IMF on Friday
Scenarios: If CPI comes in hot and core CPI exceeds expectations, the dollar and Treasury yields will rise. If 58.7 fails to hold, the next stop is 57. If CPI comes in soft, silver could rebound to 60–61.2, but I won’t chase it before it clears 61.2.
I’m leaning bearish, but staying cautious: if it bounces to around 61 and fails to break through, I’ll remain bearish. If it cools after CPI and rises above 61.2 on strong volume, I’ll admit I was wrong.
⚠️ Just my personal rambling—not investment advice.
#白银 #黄金 #CPI
$XAG $XAU