A snapshot of the crowd: People in prediction markets fall into three camps—
One camp bets on “below 80K in October” (54% on Polymarket, 55% on Kalshi), convinced the pullback isn’t over;
Another bets it can “reach 92.5K” (under 20% on both), the dreamers;
And then there are the spot holders, sitting on 83K and $BTC , watching the show: You’re putting real money on me breaking down, while I hold my coins and wait for you to eat your words.
The most brutal part is the rules: the bet is on whether it “touches that level at any minute in October,” not the closing price—one wick is enough to win.
So bearish odds ≠ spot market bearishness. More than half the people betting on a drop below 80K will turn around and buy the dip on the spot market.
Sound off in the comments: Which camp are you in? If you’re betting on a drop below 80K, do you dare short it right now?
$BTC #预测市场 #Polymarket
One camp bets on “below 80K in October” (54% on Polymarket, 55% on Kalshi), convinced the pullback isn’t over;
Another bets it can “reach 92.5K” (under 20% on both), the dreamers;
And then there are the spot holders, sitting on 83K and $BTC , watching the show: You’re putting real money on me breaking down, while I hold my coins and wait for you to eat your words.
The most brutal part is the rules: the bet is on whether it “touches that level at any minute in October,” not the closing price—one wick is enough to win.
So bearish odds ≠ spot market bearishness. More than half the people betting on a drop below 80K will turn around and buy the dip on the spot market.
Sound off in the comments: Which camp are you in? If you’re betting on a drop below 80K, do you dare short it right now?
$BTC #预测市场 #Polymarket