How will BTC, U.S. stocks, and crude oil move after tonight’s CPI release?
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KIKO_
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Tonight: U.S. September CPI—What to Expect for BTC, Treasuries, and Crude Oil?
The U.S. September CPI data will be released tonight at 8:30 p.m. Rather than focusing solely on whether BTC rises or falls, I think the reactions in Treasury yields and crude oil prices are also worth watching, as they could become key factors influencing the market’s short-term direction.
The market currently expects headline U.S. CPI to rise 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month.
The rebound in headline inflation may already be partly priced in. The real focus is still core CPI. If core inflation comes in above expectations, pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high may increase. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could strengthen further, weighing on BTC and U.S. stocks.
Conversely, if core CPI meets or falls below expectations, concerns about inflation may ease. Treasury yields could retreat, giving risk assets a chance to rebound.
Crude oil’s outlook is more complex. An upside inflation surprise could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates, dampening economic demand and putting pressure on oil prices. But if supply remains tight or geopolitical risks persist, crude oil may not necessarily fall.
Personally, I’m leaning toward elevated headline CPI, but core CPI may not significantly exceed expectations. However, this is just my view before the data is released; ultimately, it will depend on the actual results and the market’s reaction.
For BTC, the key question is not just whether the data is bullish or bearish, but whether new money enters the market. If core inflation cools and Treasury yields fall, but BTC still struggles to rise, that could indicate insufficient buying pressure and cast doubt on the durability of this rebound.
Tonight, keep an eye on three indicators: month-over-month core CPI, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index.
Remember, favorable data does not guarantee that prices will rise. An improved macro environment is only one part of the equation. What will really determine whether BTC can continue to strengthen is whether market participants are willing to step in and buy.
$BTC
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何 #比特币 #美债 #原油走势 #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
The U.S. September CPI data will be released tonight at 8:30 p.m. Rather than focusing solely on whether BTC rises or falls, I think the reactions in Treasury yields and crude oil prices are also worth watching, as they could become key factors influencing the market’s short-term direction.
The market currently expects headline U.S. CPI to rise 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.5% year over year and 0.2% month over month.
The rebound in headline inflation may already be partly priced in. The real focus is still core CPI. If core inflation comes in above expectations, pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates high may increase. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could strengthen further, weighing on BTC and U.S. stocks.
Conversely, if core CPI meets or falls below expectations, concerns about inflation may ease. Treasury yields could retreat, giving risk assets a chance to rebound.
Crude oil’s outlook is more complex. An upside inflation surprise could reinforce expectations for higher interest rates, dampening economic demand and putting pressure on oil prices. But if supply remains tight or geopolitical risks persist, crude oil may not necessarily fall.
Personally, I’m leaning toward elevated headline CPI, but core CPI may not significantly exceed expectations. However, this is just my view before the data is released; ultimately, it will depend on the actual results and the market’s reaction.
For BTC, the key question is not just whether the data is bullish or bearish, but whether new money enters the market. If core inflation cools and Treasury yields fall, but BTC still struggles to rise, that could indicate insufficient buying pressure and cast doubt on the durability of this rebound.
Tonight, keep an eye on three indicators: month-over-month core CPI, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and the U.S. Dollar Index.
Remember, favorable data does not guarantee that prices will rise. An improved macro environment is only one part of the equation. What will really determine whether BTC can continue to strengthen is whether market participants are willing to step in and buy.
$BTC
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何 #比特币 #美债 #原油走势 #9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何