$BTC Tonight at 20:30: CPI is released 📊🔍: 3.6% is just a smokescreen; core CPI at 0.2% is the real compass
Let’s look at three data points.
First, Wall Street consensus: headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.58% month over month and 3.6% year over year (up from 3.4% in August), driven by energy. U.S. retail gasoline prices rose 7.3% month over month and 37.6% year over year in September. Core CPI, however, is expected to slow to a 0.21% monthly increase and 2.4%–2.5% year over year.
Second, rate pricing: The Fed just raised rates by 25 bps in September, to 3.75%–4.00%. CME data puts the odds of a rate hike at the October meeting at just 17%, while longer-dated futures are pricing in three hikes in total. Tonight’s core reading will decide which side of this debate is right.
Third, fund flows: BTC ETFs saw $681 million in net outflows last week, followed by another $65 million on Monday. ETH has climbed back above $2,500, but ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 straight days. BTC’s 50-day moving average is at $80,300, and it’s holding.
The takeaway is simple: headline CPI is a smokescreen; core CPI is the real compass. If core CPI rises no more than 0.2% month over month, the Fed will likely hold steady in October, and BTC could target the $87,000 gap. At 0.3% or higher, rate-hike expectations could return, putting the $81,000 support level to another test.
Don’t trade ahead of the data. Having a plan matters more than betting on a direction. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI #美联储 #宏观 #比特币 #RateHike
Let’s look at three data points.
First, Wall Street consensus: headline CPI is forecast to rise 0.58% month over month and 3.6% year over year (up from 3.4% in August), driven by energy. U.S. retail gasoline prices rose 7.3% month over month and 37.6% year over year in September. Core CPI, however, is expected to slow to a 0.21% monthly increase and 2.4%–2.5% year over year.
Second, rate pricing: The Fed just raised rates by 25 bps in September, to 3.75%–4.00%. CME data puts the odds of a rate hike at the October meeting at just 17%, while longer-dated futures are pricing in three hikes in total. Tonight’s core reading will decide which side of this debate is right.
Third, fund flows: BTC ETFs saw $681 million in net outflows last week, followed by another $65 million on Monday. ETH has climbed back above $2,500, but ETH ETFs have seen net outflows for 10 straight days. BTC’s 50-day moving average is at $80,300, and it’s holding.
The takeaway is simple: headline CPI is a smokescreen; core CPI is the real compass. If core CPI rises no more than 0.2% month over month, the Fed will likely hold steady in October, and BTC could target the $87,000 gap. At 0.3% or higher, rate-hike expectations could return, putting the $81,000 support level to another test.
Don’t trade ahead of the data. Having a plan matters more than betting on a direction. Just my personal opinion, not financial advice.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI #美联储 #宏观 #比特币 #RateHike