If you, too, see $BTC gains in a row and worry about missing out, you can use this framework as a reference. I don't try to call tops or bottoms either. Experienced traders can skip ahead; below is a version ordinary people can actually follow: first distinguish whether the rise is driven by new buying or short covering.

This rally looks more like a short squeeze than a confirmed reversal. Short covering, unwinding hedges, and US spot ETF flows turning positive have clearly eased selling pressure. But as the rally approached $66,000, spot trading volume was still shrinking, suggesting there still aren't enough buyers willing to chase prices.

When watching the market, focus on just three signals.

1. Check whether spot demand has caught up

ETF flows turning positive is good news, but the shift remains modest for now. On-chain buying is concentrated mainly among large wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC, while small and midsize wallets have not been accumulating in tandem. A handful of large investors can support the price, but that does not mean the market has reached broad consensus.

2. Watch whether $69,000 can hold

This level corresponds to the cost basis for short-term holders and is also the breakeven point for many buyers from the past five months. When the price reaches this level, recently recovered holders are more likely to sell.

If BTC breaks through and can hold above this level, it suggests the market is absorbing this supply. If it only spikes briefly before falling back, the lack of follow-through buying once the short squeeze ends will become apparent. Below that, $63,000 is a key demand zone to watch.

3. Watch for the true direction after options expiry

BTC options with a notional value of around $9.5 billion expire on Friday. Before expiry, market-maker hedging may constrain prices; afterward, that constraint eases, and volatility may actually increase. Rather than reacting to short-term swings ahead of expiry, watch whether spot trading volume and the breadth of wallet accumulation both expand afterward.

In a nutshell: sellers are exhausted, but buyers have yet to fully step in. Set price alerts at $69,000 and $63,000, then wait for price, trading volume, and spot demand to provide a clearer answer before deciding whether to adjust your plan.

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