Tonight at 20:30, the CPI showdown begins. This figure could determine Trump’s political fate in the midterms! So what impact will it have on the major asset classes?
First, let’s look at the current forecasts. They’re all higher than the previous readings, which is bearish. If the actual figure meets or exceeds expectations, the odds of a Fed rate hike at the end of the month will rise, increasing the risk of further pressure on the markets.
Whether this rate-hiking cycle continues or comes to an abrupt halt will basically depend entirely on this CPI report.
Before we get to the CPI, let’s look at the midterm elections next month. The factors having the biggest impact on voter sentiment are closely tied to people’s everyday lives—fuel prices, the cost of living, and other essential expenses.
Recently, Trump and Putin reached an agreement to release diesel supplies. The goal was to bring down global fuel prices and the cost of living, and score some political points. But the results have been negligible. Crude oil prices are still the key driver of living costs, and the Middle East remains the biggest factor. As long as the US and Iran have yet to reach an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it will be very difficult for crude prices to fall. Although the jobs report at the start of the month was revised down significantly, lowering expectations for rate hikes, the CPI is another matter: people won’t be reassured just because one figure came down. They want to know when domestic fuel costs will fall. Everyone understands this—it’s not just about one data point!
If the midterm elections go badly and either chamber is lost, the chances of the crypto framework bill passing later on will be even lower.
If the actual figure matches or comes in below expectations, that should be just about acceptable and preserve some confidence that inflation is under control.
If the actual figure matches or comes in below the previous reading, it’s likely that the US and Iran will reach a new agreement later on. Crude prices would then fall rapidly, much like they did in July.
That would quickly boost risk assets, and the market could be poised for a major rally.
Tonight’s report is extremely important.
Here’s the ranking of how strongly it could affect markets:
US Dollar Index > Gold (Crude Oil) > US Stocks > Crypto
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
First, let’s look at the current forecasts. They’re all higher than the previous readings, which is bearish. If the actual figure meets or exceeds expectations, the odds of a Fed rate hike at the end of the month will rise, increasing the risk of further pressure on the markets.
Whether this rate-hiking cycle continues or comes to an abrupt halt will basically depend entirely on this CPI report.
Before we get to the CPI, let’s look at the midterm elections next month. The factors having the biggest impact on voter sentiment are closely tied to people’s everyday lives—fuel prices, the cost of living, and other essential expenses.
Recently, Trump and Putin reached an agreement to release diesel supplies. The goal was to bring down global fuel prices and the cost of living, and score some political points. But the results have been negligible. Crude oil prices are still the key driver of living costs, and the Middle East remains the biggest factor. As long as the US and Iran have yet to reach an agreement on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, it will be very difficult for crude prices to fall. Although the jobs report at the start of the month was revised down significantly, lowering expectations for rate hikes, the CPI is another matter: people won’t be reassured just because one figure came down. They want to know when domestic fuel costs will fall. Everyone understands this—it’s not just about one data point!
If the midterm elections go badly and either chamber is lost, the chances of the crypto framework bill passing later on will be even lower.
If the actual figure matches or comes in below expectations, that should be just about acceptable and preserve some confidence that inflation is under control.
If the actual figure matches or comes in below the previous reading, it’s likely that the US and Iran will reach a new agreement later on. Crude prices would then fall rapidly, much like they did in July.
That would quickly boost risk assets, and the market could be poised for a major rally.
Tonight’s report is extremely important.
Here’s the ranking of how strongly it could affect markets:
US Dollar Index > Gold (Crude Oil) > US Stocks > Crypto
#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何