#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
At 8:30 p.m. tonight, the U.S. September CPI will be released. The market expects headline inflation to rise 3.6% year over year and core inflation to rise 2.5%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 5.22%, and Brent crude is about $106.6 a barrel.
My view: CPI may have a greater direct impact on Treasuries than on crude oil, and the two may not necessarily move in the same direction.
If core inflation comes in higher than expected, Treasury yields could continue to rise. If elevated headline CPI is mainly driven by energy while core inflation remains moderate, long-term bonds may instead find support.
Crude oil is also being driven by Middle East supply risks, so prices may not fall even if CPI comes in below expectations.
The key things to watch tonight are whether core inflation exceeds expectations, and whether 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields diverge from oil prices.
The crucial question is whether the energy shock is evolving into broader, more persistent inflationary pressure.
At 8:30 p.m. tonight, the U.S. September CPI will be released. The market expects headline inflation to rise 3.6% year over year and core inflation to rise 2.5%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently around 5.22%, and Brent crude is about $106.6 a barrel.
My view: CPI may have a greater direct impact on Treasuries than on crude oil, and the two may not necessarily move in the same direction.
If core inflation comes in higher than expected, Treasury yields could continue to rise. If elevated headline CPI is mainly driven by energy while core inflation remains moderate, long-term bonds may instead find support.
Crude oil is also being driven by Middle East supply risks, so prices may not fall even if CPI comes in below expectations.
The key things to watch tonight are whether core inflation exceeds expectations, and whether 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields diverge from oil prices.
The crucial question is whether the energy shock is evolving into broader, more persistent inflationary pressure.