Yesterday, the call was: “A daily close back below 82,787 = the weekend rebound has failed.” It only held for a day: the 10/13 daily close was 83,169, back above 82,787. It has recovered, but still hasn’t cleared 84,972, so price is still moving within the range.
Read today’s fund flows with caution. Farside’s 10/13 ETF figures are not complete yet:
・BTC: FBTC +$103 million; other funds that have reported total +$6.7 million, but the largest fund, IBIT, has yet to report
・ETH: Reported funds total +$24.8 million, but the largest fund, ETHA, has yet to report
IBIT and ETHA were the main sources of outflows in recent days (−$65.4 million and −$75.1 million, respectively, on 10/12). Until their figures come in, we can’t say ETF flows have turned positive. Nor can we declare an end to ETH’s 10 consecutive days of net outflows.
The U.S. September CPI report comes out tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC—the first test since the price moved back above the level. Three things to watch next:
1. After CPI is released, can the 10/14 daily close (10/15 08:00 UTC+8) hold above 82,787?
2. Can price break above 84,972? A drop below 80,393 would mean the recent low has given way.
3. Once IBIT / ETHA’s 10/13 figures are complete, will flows turn positive or continue outflowing?
$BTC $ETH | Sources: Binance BTCUSDT daily chart, Farside (10/13 figures incomplete), BLS | Not investment advice
Read today’s fund flows with caution. Farside’s 10/13 ETF figures are not complete yet:
・BTC: FBTC +$103 million; other funds that have reported total +$6.7 million, but the largest fund, IBIT, has yet to report
・ETH: Reported funds total +$24.8 million, but the largest fund, ETHA, has yet to report
IBIT and ETHA were the main sources of outflows in recent days (−$65.4 million and −$75.1 million, respectively, on 10/12). Until their figures come in, we can’t say ETF flows have turned positive. Nor can we declare an end to ETH’s 10 consecutive days of net outflows.
The U.S. September CPI report comes out tonight at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC—the first test since the price moved back above the level. Three things to watch next:
1. After CPI is released, can the 10/14 daily close (10/15 08:00 UTC+8) hold above 82,787?
2. Can price break above 84,972? A drop below 80,393 would mean the recent low has given way.
3. Once IBIT / ETHA’s 10/13 figures are complete, will flows turn positive or continue outflowing?
$BTC $ETH | Sources: Binance BTCUSDT daily chart, Farside (10/13 figures incomplete), BLS | Not investment advice