September CPI Is Coming: What’s Next for Crude Oil and U.S. Treasuries?
#9月cpi来袭原油美债走势如何
September CPI (due at 8:30 a.m. ET on October 14) is the last major inflation report before the Fed’s October 27–28 meeting. The market generally expects headline inflation to rise on a rebound in energy prices, while core inflation is expected to remain relatively moderate. The impact on crude oil and U.S. Treasuries will depend mainly on how the data compare with expectations, especially core CPI.
Market consensus expectations (compiled from multiple sources)
Headline CPI: approximately +0.5% to +0.6% month over month (previous: +0.4%), and approximately 3.6% to 3.7% year over year (previous: 3.4%).
Core CPI (excluding food and energy): approximately +0.2% month over month (previous: +0.3%), and approximately 2.4% to 2.5% year over year (previous: 2.4%).