There are two signals worth watching in the crypto market today: BTC ETF flows are showing signs of improvement, and U.S. CPI data is due out tonight!
This could be one of the week's most important market moments.
First, BTC ETF flows are starting to shift.
On October 12, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million, while ETH ETFs saw net outflows of $85.4 million.
But preliminary data for October 13 shows significant inflows returning to some BTC ETFs, including approximately $103 million in net inflows to Fidelity's FBTC.
Some ETH ETFs also reported net inflows.
However, the data is not yet complete, so we can't conclude that institutional funds have fully returned.
What does this mean?
The market may be attempting a recovery, but a genuine trend reversal still needs confirmation from capital flows over several consecutive trading sessions.
Second, U.S. CPI will be officially released tonight at 20:30!
The market expects U.S. headline CPI to rise about 3.7% year over year in September, up from 3.4% in August.
Note: This is a market forecast, not the actual reported figure.
If inflation comes in above expectations, the market may worry that the Fed will maintain its restrictive policy, putting pressure on BTC and tech stocks.
If it comes in below expectations, risk sentiment could improve.
But the data release won’t necessarily lead to a one-way move up or down. Be especially alert to sharp volatility over a short period.
Third, U.S. tech stocks remain under pressure.
On October 13, the Nasdaq fell 0.15%, while semiconductor stocks extended their pullback to five consecutive trading sessions.
Meanwhile, the IMF has also warned about overheated AI investment, debt leverage, and potential risks in financial markets.
This is a reminder that a promising technological outlook doesn’t mean related assets are free of short-term risks.
Fourth, there’s major news in the AI race.
Google has officially opened Gemini 4 Argon to developers.
The new model focuses on improving complex coding, long-running tasks, and AI agent capabilities.
During the promotional period, API pricing is $2 per million input tokens and $10 per million output tokens.
Competition among AI models is intensifying. In the long run, this could lower application development costs, but more testing is needed to verify the actual impact.
Finally, let’s talk about what’s next for BTC.
Key levels to watch:
83K–83.3K: first support level.
84K–84.3K: first resistance level.
85K–85.5K: key zone for trend recovery.
87K–88K: strong medium-term resistance.
Only if BTC holds above 85.5K would there be reason to raise expectations for a move up to 87K–88K.
If BTC falls below 81K again, watch out for a retest of around 80K.
The real test comes tonight at 20:30!
U.S. September CPI is about to be released.
If inflation comes in below expectations, it could ease interest rate pressures and help BTC continue its rebound.
If inflation comes in significantly above expectations, it could trigger a sell-off in risk assets.
My view: BTC is recovering in the short term, but a decisive move above 85.5K is still needed for a genuine strengthening of the trend.
Historically, October has usually been a strong month, but ultimately, market performance depends on capital flows and the macro environment.
Tonight’s CPI report could be an important catalyst in determining the next phase of market direction.
After tonight’s CPI release, do you think BTC will first break above $85,000 or retest $80,000?
Share your view in the comments, and follow me as we track important market signals together!
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The content above is for market discussion only and does not constitute investment advice.