Wednesday's closely watched consumer price reading could show intensifying inflationary pressures as energy costs keep climbing, according to CNBC. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect September headline CPI to rise 0.6% on the month and 3.6% year over year — a 12-month number signaling that price growth is accelerating and moving further from the Federal Reserve's 2% goal. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to increase 0.2% from August and 2.5% on a 12-month basis — a slight month-over-month slowdown but an uptick in year-over-year inflation.

Oil-related prices could drive the headline figure even higher, said Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM. Energy costs have been among the biggest drivers of inflation since the US war with Iran began earlier this year, and President Donald Trump last week announced loosened diesel restrictions on Russia in a bid to juice the global oil trade, though analysts don't believe it will meaningfully bring down prices. Brent crude, the global benchmark, climbed more than 14% in September, bringing its third-quarter advance to about 42%, with prices trading around $105 a barrel Tuesday. "We've got real upside risk on the September CPI," Brusuelas said. "Typically, when we have these moves in inflation, everyone's models undershoot the actual outcome."

Sticky oil prices could also push up costs in non-energy categories, said Robert Sockin, chief US economist at asset manager PGIM, making it harder for the Fed to write off the energy surge as a short-term shock that won't necessitate rate increases. After announcing its first increase in three years last month, the Fed signaled in its meeting minutes that it will likely have to hike again; Fed funds futures traders anticipate the next lift at the December meeting, per CME's FedWatch tool. "The list of reasons to hike rates in our view is long," Sockin said. "Ultimately, we have low confidence in the timing of the Fed's next move, but more conviction on the direction of travel." Wednesday's release is the last CPI reading before November's midterms, which could determine whether the Republican Party keeps total control in Washington. Economic confidence has fallen this year across political affiliations per University of Michigan consumer sentiment data, with Republican and independent voters posting steeper declines than Democrats since the start of 2026. Thursday's producer price index is forecast to rise 0.6% from August to September and 5.5% on a 12-month basis — both a modest acceleration from August's release.