10.14 Chen Jie’s Morning Analysis
On Wednesday evening, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted monthly CPI and unadjusted annual CPI figures for this week will be released. Official reserves remained steady at +23.02 tonnes, while ETF holdings recorded a slight net outflow of 1.22 tonnes in a single day. After previously reaching a high of 4217, the market saw several rounds of pullbacks and consolidation. On Tuesday, it bottomed at 4146, stabilized, and rebounded. This morning it opened at 4162, pulled back to 4154 where it found support, and is now consolidating around 4156. Two consecutive days of steep declines have failed to decisively break through the dense support zone at 4140–4146. The centers of the daily and 4-hour moving averages are steadily rising, while bearish selling momentum is gradually being exhausted. Bulls maintain absolute dominance over the broader trend.
After a large bullish daily candle confirmed a reversal, the daily chart has continued to consolidate in a narrowing range, holding firmly in the buildup zone below the daily Bollinger midline (4213). The daily Bollinger lower band has rebounded quickly from around 4040, containing downside risk. The technical picture points to a second push higher.
The 4-hour Bollinger midline has moved up to 4176, while the lower band forms strong support at 4140. The bands are contracting sideways overall, building energy for a directional breakout. The 1-hour Bollinger midline is at 4172, and its lower band is precisely at 4142. After the sharp drop last night touched 4146, the market quickly rebounded with a long lower wick. In the early session, it found support again at the 15-minute lower band (4154).
Trading strategy
Go long around 4140–4150; targets at 4180–4210–4240. Stop-loss: 4123#xau $XAU
On Wednesday evening, the U.S. September seasonally adjusted monthly CPI and unadjusted annual CPI figures for this week will be released. Official reserves remained steady at +23.02 tonnes, while ETF holdings recorded a slight net outflow of 1.22 tonnes in a single day. After previously reaching a high of 4217, the market saw several rounds of pullbacks and consolidation. On Tuesday, it bottomed at 4146, stabilized, and rebounded. This morning it opened at 4162, pulled back to 4154 where it found support, and is now consolidating around 4156. Two consecutive days of steep declines have failed to decisively break through the dense support zone at 4140–4146. The centers of the daily and 4-hour moving averages are steadily rising, while bearish selling momentum is gradually being exhausted. Bulls maintain absolute dominance over the broader trend.
After a large bullish daily candle confirmed a reversal, the daily chart has continued to consolidate in a narrowing range, holding firmly in the buildup zone below the daily Bollinger midline (4213). The daily Bollinger lower band has rebounded quickly from around 4040, containing downside risk. The technical picture points to a second push higher.
The 4-hour Bollinger midline has moved up to 4176, while the lower band forms strong support at 4140. The bands are contracting sideways overall, building energy for a directional breakout. The 1-hour Bollinger midline is at 4172, and its lower band is precisely at 4142. After the sharp drop last night touched 4146, the market quickly rebounded with a long lower wick. In the early session, it found support again at the 15-minute lower band (4154).
Trading strategy
Go long around 4140–4150; targets at 4180–4210–4240. Stop-loss: 4123#xau $XAU