【When the market starts saying “this time is different,” it’s time to be careful】
Your account’s been looking pretty healthy lately, the candlesticks are glowing green, and the folks calling out trades in the group chat are getting active again. Honestly, that’s when I ask myself one more question: has it all been going a little too smoothly?
BTC is hovering around 85k, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 62—in “Greed” territory. I’ve seen this number plenty of times: at the end of 2017 and in November 2021. It’s always the same script: everyone thinks they’ve finally found their ticket to financial freedom, goes all in, and then… well, you know.
Here are a few numbers:
FNG is 62, and the weekly average is also 62—sentiment is steady, but running hot;
BTC dominance is 59.2%, so it’s still the undisputed leader of the market;
It’s down 2.4% over the past 7 days, but up 2.5% in the past 24 hours. This kind of volatility suggests some people are hesitating, with bulls and bears pulling in opposite directions.
Something interesting happened recently: Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, got a license to trade crypto and is preparing to offer BTC, ETH, and USDT. Sure, you can call that good news. But my first thought was: big money isn’t coming in to bail anyone out—it’s coming in to make money.
What does this mean in practice? Who will it affect?
As more institutions enter the market, the rules of the game will change. They have lower costs of capital, better access to information, and more sophisticated hedging tools. While retail traders are still treating candlestick charts like gospel, institutions have already put protections in place in the options market.
I’m not saying BTC is going to fall. I’m saying—if you’re still fully invested on the long side with no hedge at all, can you keep your cool if the market gives you a shakeout?
I’m not saying you need to run for the exits right now. The point of this greed warning isn’t to tell you what the market will do; it’s to remind you of one thing: **Only those with cash to deploy and hedges in place are in a position to wait for the real opportunities.**
How are you positioned right now? Have you left yourself a fallback plan?
Your account’s been looking pretty healthy lately, the candlesticks are glowing green, and the folks calling out trades in the group chat are getting active again. Honestly, that’s when I ask myself one more question: has it all been going a little too smoothly?
BTC is hovering around 85k, and the Fear & Greed Index is at 62—in “Greed” territory. I’ve seen this number plenty of times: at the end of 2017 and in November 2021. It’s always the same script: everyone thinks they’ve finally found their ticket to financial freedom, goes all in, and then… well, you know.
Here are a few numbers:
FNG is 62, and the weekly average is also 62—sentiment is steady, but running hot;
BTC dominance is 59.2%, so it’s still the undisputed leader of the market;
It’s down 2.4% over the past 7 days, but up 2.5% in the past 24 hours. This kind of volatility suggests some people are hesitating, with bulls and bears pulling in opposite directions.
Something interesting happened recently: Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, got a license to trade crypto and is preparing to offer BTC, ETH, and USDT. Sure, you can call that good news. But my first thought was: big money isn’t coming in to bail anyone out—it’s coming in to make money.
What does this mean in practice? Who will it affect?
As more institutions enter the market, the rules of the game will change. They have lower costs of capital, better access to information, and more sophisticated hedging tools. While retail traders are still treating candlestick charts like gospel, institutions have already put protections in place in the options market.
I’m not saying BTC is going to fall. I’m saying—if you’re still fully invested on the long side with no hedge at all, can you keep your cool if the market gives you a shakeout?
I’m not saying you need to run for the exits right now. The point of this greed warning isn’t to tell you what the market will do; it’s to remind you of one thing: **Only those with cash to deploy and hedges in place are in a position to wait for the real opportunities.**
How are you positioned right now? Have you left yourself a fallback plan?