The most striking thing today isn't how much prices have risen, but how broadly they've risen—yet in derivatives, some traders are already paying out of pocket. All five major coins have been in the green over the past 24 hours, while one coin's funding rate has fallen to -0.6515%.

First, the broader market.$BTC 83169, +1.59%; $ETH 2498, +2.05%; BNB 741.71, +1.20%; $SOL 106.81, +1.02%; XRP 1.37, +1.80%. None were left behind, and the gains were all modest. The Fear and Greed Index is at 57, in the Greed zone.

Among the coins with the highest trading volumes, BAT gained the most at +27.89%, followed by INJ at +11.09% and TIA at +8.26%. On the losing side were QNT at -7.07%, SPCXB at -3.36%, and NEAR at -0.96%. The gap between the gainers and losers is pretty wide, suggesting money isn't being spread around evenly—it's piling into a handful of assets.

Now, where the money is flowing. The biggest move worth noting overnight was a BlackRock ETF-linked wallet depositing $203 million worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum into Coinbase Prime. From the outside, it’s impossible to tell whether this transfer was for market-making, redemptions, or something else. All we can say is that it’s a sizable move worth keeping an eye on.

Geopolitical tensions haven’t let up either. Twenty-four commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked by missiles and drones; the Houthis threatened Saudi targets; Egypt voiced its support; and Israel’s bid to get involved was rejected. One official said the safety premium on U.S. Treasuries had disappeared, while bearish news sent South Korean stocks tumbling. Whether any of this will spill over into crypto prices is still just a possibility, not something that has happened yet.

On the macro front, the Fed’s Williams said one more rate hike this year would be appropriate. Today, we’ll hear from Fed officials Barkin and Collins, and China will release its September year-over-year CPI figure.

Back to the funding rates we mentioned at the start. Normal funding rates are around 0.01%; when they’re negative, shorts pay longs. BLUR is now at -0.6515%, QNT at -0.0504%, and BAT at -0.0358%. The more negative the rate, the more short sellers there are—and the more desperate they are, willing to pay just to hold their positions. BAT is up 27.89% in a day, yet its funding rate is still negative. That’s two sides of the same story.

There are a few things to watch in this kind of situation. If the price keeps rising, shorts are forced to buy back their positions to close them. Those buy orders can push the price even higher—that’s a short squeeze. The trouble is, short squeezes can end as quickly as they begin. By the time you react and jump in, you could easily be buying right at the top. To gauge whether it’s over, watch two signals: has the funding rate returned to around normal, and has open interest fallen significantly? If both happen, it suggests the money crowded on one side has dispersed.

In the futures market, during the hour with the most liquidations over the past 12 hours, at least $10.23 million was liquidated on Binance Futures. Long positions accounted for roughly 47%, and the actual figure will be higher.

There are just a few things to watch today: remarks from Barkin and Collins, China’s September CPI, and whether those extremely negative funding rates turn positive again. Do you think this is a short squeeze, or is someone betting ahead of time on a different direction?