ASML earnings | Due out around 1 p.m. today, and I'm actually worried it'll be "too good" 🤔
$ASML closed around 1,718 last night, down about 8% from the October 2 high of 1,867. Investors have already pulled back ahead of earnings.
First, market expectations: revenue of about €11.7 billion (the company’s own guidance is €11–12 billion), gross margin guidance of 55%–57%, and EPS of around €10.70. Orders? They’re no longer being reported. Starting this year, ASML stopped reporting quarterly orders, so all we can do is watch what they say about 2027 on the earnings call.
My guess: revenue around €12 billion, near the top end of guidance; gross margin around 57%. The real decider is guidance—for the full year to come in at €43–45 billion, Q4 needs to be around €14.4 billion. My guess is they’ll raise their full-year outlook.
Scenario A — Beats expectations: Full-year guidance raised + 2027 described as “fully booked.” The stock will probably test the resistance at 1,870, then we’ll see if it can reach the previous high of 2,000.
Scenario B — Misses expectations: A strong quarter but no change to full-year guidance, with vague comments about 2027. The stock is already up 60% this year, so it could easily be a “sell the news” situation. First watch 1,680; if that breaks, 1,590.
Honestly, I’m bullish, but I’m not chasing it. A pullback to around 1,680 would feel more comfortable. If ASML says 2027 is fully booked, $TSM in the supply chain should benefit too 😂
⚠️ Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
#ASML #财报 #Semiconductors
$ASML closed around 1,718 last night, down about 8% from the October 2 high of 1,867. Investors have already pulled back ahead of earnings.
First, market expectations: revenue of about €11.7 billion (the company’s own guidance is €11–12 billion), gross margin guidance of 55%–57%, and EPS of around €10.70. Orders? They’re no longer being reported. Starting this year, ASML stopped reporting quarterly orders, so all we can do is watch what they say about 2027 on the earnings call.
My guess: revenue around €12 billion, near the top end of guidance; gross margin around 57%. The real decider is guidance—for the full year to come in at €43–45 billion, Q4 needs to be around €14.4 billion. My guess is they’ll raise their full-year outlook.
Scenario A — Beats expectations: Full-year guidance raised + 2027 described as “fully booked.” The stock will probably test the resistance at 1,870, then we’ll see if it can reach the previous high of 2,000.
Scenario B — Misses expectations: A strong quarter but no change to full-year guidance, with vague comments about 2027. The stock is already up 60% this year, so it could easily be a “sell the news” situation. First watch 1,680; if that breaks, 1,590.
Honestly, I’m bullish, but I’m not chasing it. A pullback to around 1,680 would feel more comfortable. If ASML says 2027 is fully booked, $TSM in the supply chain should benefit too 😂
⚠️ Just my personal rambling; this is not investment advice.
#ASML #财报 #Semiconductors