#比特币市占率回升至60% Bitcoin dominance returns to around 60%
In the latest pullback, Bitcoin has held up better than most altcoins, and funds have flowed back into BTC, pushing its dominance up to around 60%.
This means the market is currently leaning more defensive: money is moving back into Bitcoin first, while altcoins are relatively weaker. The Altcoin Season Index is also still in neutral territory, so a full-fledged altcoin season has yet to begin.
Tonight's CPI is key
Potential impact on Bitcoin
1. Core inflation comes in soft (≤0.2% month over month, unchanged or lower year over year) This would reduce the likelihood of an October rate hike and bring Treasury yields down, which would be positive for BTC. With dominance recently climbing back to around 60%, BTC may continue to outperform altcoins and could have a chance to test previous resistance.
2. Core inflation comes in hot (≥0.3% month over month) This would reinforce expectations of another rate hike, pushing yields higher and strengthening the dollar. BTC could face short-term pressure and may test support below. Altcoins would likely be weaker.
3. Headline inflation is high overall, but core inflation is moderate The market is more focused on core inflation. If core inflation meets expectations, energy prices could explain the overall figure, limiting the impact on risk assets. BTC may trade sideways before choosing a direction.
So the key is still how the market adjusts its expectations for future Fed rate hikes after the CPI release.
In the latest pullback, Bitcoin has held up better than most altcoins, and funds have flowed back into BTC, pushing its dominance up to around 60%.
This means the market is currently leaning more defensive: money is moving back into Bitcoin first, while altcoins are relatively weaker. The Altcoin Season Index is also still in neutral territory, so a full-fledged altcoin season has yet to begin.
Tonight's CPI is key
Potential impact on Bitcoin
1. Core inflation comes in soft (≤0.2% month over month, unchanged or lower year over year) This would reduce the likelihood of an October rate hike and bring Treasury yields down, which would be positive for BTC. With dominance recently climbing back to around 60%, BTC may continue to outperform altcoins and could have a chance to test previous resistance.
2. Core inflation comes in hot (≥0.3% month over month) This would reinforce expectations of another rate hike, pushing yields higher and strengthening the dollar. BTC could face short-term pressure and may test support below. Altcoins would likely be weaker.
3. Headline inflation is high overall, but core inflation is moderate The market is more focused on core inflation. If core inflation meets expectations, energy prices could explain the overall figure, limiting the impact on risk assets. BTC may trade sideways before choosing a direction.
So the key is still how the market adjusts its expectations for future Fed rate hikes after the CPI release.