Bottom line: ARCUSDT perpetual fell about 45.96% within 24 hours, with daily trading volume nearing 100 million USDT. During the sharp decline, both OI quantity and notional value contracted significantly. The price then rebounded from around 0.02195, but the latest 4-hour candle has not yet closed. The 0.03476 level is only an intraday reference for now, so this rebound cannot yet be described as a trend reversal.
As of 03:25 Beijing time on October 14, 2026, the latest price of Binance USDⓈ-M ARCUSDT perpetual was about 0.03331 USDT. Its 24-hour range was 0.02195–0.06203, a decline of about 45.960%, with contract trading volume of about 100.01 million USDT. The Binance spot API returned Invalid symbol for ARCUSDT, so this article discusses only perpetual data; it does not mix in spot prices or interpret contract trading volume as net spot inflows.
First, look at the closed candlesticks. The 4-hour candle from 00:00 to 04:00 Beijing time on October 13 fell from 0.05994 to 0.03948, with a low of 0.03433 and approximately 15.59 million USDT in trading volume. The 04:00–08:00 candle closed at 0.03317, with approximately 8.73 million USDT in trading volume. The 08:00–12:00 candle hit a low of 0.02195 and closed at 0.02688, with approximately 28.61 million USDT in trading volume. The 12:00–16:00 candle rebounded to close at 0.02917, with approximately 27.77 million USDT in trading volume.
The current 16:00–20:00 4-hour candle has not yet closed, and reached an intraperiod high of 0.03476. The most recent closed hourly candle (18:00–19:00) closed at 0.03330, with a high of 0.03394. In other words, the price has rebounded from its low, but no closed 4-hour candle has yet held above 0.03476. An intraperiod high does not constitute a confirmed breakout.
Daily trading volume shows this is not an ordinary, modest fluctuation: the closed daily candle for October 13 opened at 0.05994, reached a high of 0.06052 and a low of 0.02195, and closed at 0.03330, with approximately 99.87 million USDT in trading volume. Trading volume on October 12 was approximately 1.056 million USDT. The increase in trading volume indicates elevated turnover and concentrated risk, but cannot by itself prove that selling pressure has ended.
The leverage picture looks more like “a flush-out followed by a partial rebuild.” At 00:00 UTC, or 08:00 Beijing time, OI was approximately 306.06 million tokens, with a notional value of approximately 18.33 million USDT. An hour later, the quantity had fallen to approximately 248.62 million tokens, with a notional value of approximately 9.92 million USDT, indicating a clear contraction in positions during the sharp decline. By 03:00 Beijing time, OI had recovered to approximately 270.58 million tokens, but its notional value was approximately 9.09 million USDT, still below the pre-crash level. Comparing snapshots from 08:00 to 03:00 the following day, the OI quantity fell by approximately 11.6%, while its notional value fell by approximately 50.4%. Public OI data cannot distinguish voluntary position closures from liquidations, so we can only say that leverage exposure has cooled significantly, not assert the specific reasons for the closures.
Funding rates also do not offer a low-risk signal to go long. The most recently settled funding rate was approximately -0.241214% per funding period, while the current estimate is approximately -0.241461%. The mark price, at approximately 0.033291, is below the index price of approximately 0.033490. A negative funding rate indicates that perpetual pricing and positioning are skewed in one direction, but does not mean the price must rebound. If the rebound fails, elevated volatility could continue to amplify the risk of liquidations on both sides.
Four levels to watch next:
1. 0.03394–0.03476: the high of the most recent closed hourly candle and the high of the current, still-open 4-hour candle. The rebound would be more strongly confirmed only if a new 4-hour candle closes above this range.
2. 0.02917: the close of the most recently closed 4-hour candle. If the price pulls back but holds this level, it would indicate that short-term support has not completely disappeared. A break below it followed by a failed retest would weaken the rebound structure.
3. 0.02688: the close of the previous closed 4-hour candle. If the price breaks below it on elevated volume, watch for a retest of the lower range.
4. 0.02195: the 24-hour low and an extreme level to watch in this sharp decline. If it breaks below this level, assess the candle close and changes in OI; do not draw conclusions from a single wick alone.
My view is that ARC is currently in a state of “heavy-volume decline, leverage flush-out, and a low-level rebound that remains unconfirmed”—this is not a signal that a reversal has already taken place. The bullish scenario requires a 4-hour candle to close above 0.03476, without a recovery in OI being accompanied by renewed price weakness. The bearish scenario is a rejection in the 0.03394–0.03476 range, followed by a 4-hour close back below 0.02917. In either scenario, negative funding rates cannot replace evidence from price action and candle closes. This article only summarizes public market data and highlights risks; it does not constitute investment advice.
Data timestamp: October 14, 2026, 03:25 Beijing time. Sources: Binance USDⓈ-M public endpoints for 24-hour market data, 1-hour/4-hour/daily candlesticks, historical OI, mark prices, and funding rates. Market conditions continue to change. This article does not involve any personal account, position, or trading history.