After the leverage was cleared out, the market started moving differently
$BTC is now around $83,071, up 0.76% over 24 hours, while $ETH is around $2,503, down 0.33%. Looking at prices alone, it seems like the market has settled into a range, but the way it’s holding that range has changed.
In the liquidation wave on October 8, around $1.18 billion in positions were wiped out across the market in a single day. Since then, open interest has not rebuilt quickly. With leverage gone, the market has shifted to a different driver: before, futures led the charge and spot followed; now spot is providing support while futures sit on the sidelines. Rallies in this kind of market tend to be slower, with more false breakouts, because there’s no leverage to turn a single green candle into a trend. The move on October 13, when the price rebounded from a low of $81,018 to above $83,500, was a case in point: it held up, but didn’t extend further.
The flow picture tells the same story. U.S. spot $BTC ETFs saw combined net outflows of around $679 million over the past five trading days, with just $21.1 million flowing back in on October 9. $ETH funds have been even weaker, recording outflows for nine consecutive days totaling around $697 million, including another $56.1 million outflow on October 9 alone. On the other hand, Strategy bought another 250 $BTC , and BitMine added 12,532 $ETH . Long-term holders are still buying. The market is now caught between two kinds of money: ETF money is flowing out, while accumulation-focused buyers are stepping in. ETF holders’ cost basis is right overhead. The closer the price gets to above $84,500, the more likely it is to run into people looking to sell at breakeven. That’s one reason rallies tend to struggle around this level.
Sentiment is also conflicted. The Fear & Greed Index is at 57, still in the greed zone, but prices remain far below their all-time highs: $BTC is down about 34% from its peak of $126,080, and $ETH is down about 49% from its peak of $4,946. The index suggests people aren’t afraid, but positioning suggests they aren’t in a hurry to buy. This combination often points to low-volume choppy trading rather than a major move in either direction.
U.S. September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The market expects headline inflation to come in around 3.6%–3.7%, with core month-over-month inflation at about 0.24%. This data will determine whether the market keeps grinding sideways or makes a move in one direction. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already near 5.24%, and the dollar index is also near an 18-month high. The macro backdrop does not look favorable for risk assets.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, yields and rate-hike expectations could rise further, and ETF outflows are likely to continue. For $BTC , watch $81,300 first, then $79,900; for $ETH , watch $2,410 first, then $2,245. If CPI meets expectations or comes in cooler, $BTC needs to hold above $84,500, with ETF inflows confirming the move, before there’s a real opening toward the $87,000 year-opening price. One green candle alone won’t be enough. If the data is neither hot nor cool, the most likely outcome is more range-bound trading between $81,300 and $84,500 for $BTC , and between $2,410 and $2,626 for $ETH , while altcoins continue to underperform the broader market and trading volume stays low.
Key levels: On the downside, $BTC ’s first level to watch is $82,000, followed by $81,300. A break below that level without a recovery would change the logic behind the previous rebound. On the upside, watch $84,500 first; only a sustained hold there, confirmed by inflows, would put $87,722 in play. For $ETH , watch $2,410 on the downside and $2,626 on the upside. If it can’t reclaim $2,500, it will remain the weaker of the two compared with $BTC .
$BTC is now around $83,071, up 0.76% over 24 hours, while $ETH is around $2,503, down 0.33%. Looking at prices alone, it seems like the market has settled into a range, but the way it’s holding that range has changed.
In the liquidation wave on October 8, around $1.18 billion in positions were wiped out across the market in a single day. Since then, open interest has not rebuilt quickly. With leverage gone, the market has shifted to a different driver: before, futures led the charge and spot followed; now spot is providing support while futures sit on the sidelines. Rallies in this kind of market tend to be slower, with more false breakouts, because there’s no leverage to turn a single green candle into a trend. The move on October 13, when the price rebounded from a low of $81,018 to above $83,500, was a case in point: it held up, but didn’t extend further.
The flow picture tells the same story. U.S. spot $BTC ETFs saw combined net outflows of around $679 million over the past five trading days, with just $21.1 million flowing back in on October 9. $ETH funds have been even weaker, recording outflows for nine consecutive days totaling around $697 million, including another $56.1 million outflow on October 9 alone. On the other hand, Strategy bought another 250 $BTC , and BitMine added 12,532 $ETH . Long-term holders are still buying. The market is now caught between two kinds of money: ETF money is flowing out, while accumulation-focused buyers are stepping in. ETF holders’ cost basis is right overhead. The closer the price gets to above $84,500, the more likely it is to run into people looking to sell at breakeven. That’s one reason rallies tend to struggle around this level.
Sentiment is also conflicted. The Fear & Greed Index is at 57, still in the greed zone, but prices remain far below their all-time highs: $BTC is down about 34% from its peak of $126,080, and $ETH is down about 49% from its peak of $4,946. The index suggests people aren’t afraid, but positioning suggests they aren’t in a hurry to buy. This combination often points to low-volume choppy trading rather than a major move in either direction.
U.S. September CPI will be released tonight at 20:30 Beijing time. The market expects headline inflation to come in around 3.6%–3.7%, with core month-over-month inflation at about 0.24%. This data will determine whether the market keeps grinding sideways or makes a move in one direction. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is already near 5.24%, and the dollar index is also near an 18-month high. The macro backdrop does not look favorable for risk assets.
If CPI comes in hotter than expected, yields and rate-hike expectations could rise further, and ETF outflows are likely to continue. For $BTC , watch $81,300 first, then $79,900; for $ETH , watch $2,410 first, then $2,245. If CPI meets expectations or comes in cooler, $BTC needs to hold above $84,500, with ETF inflows confirming the move, before there’s a real opening toward the $87,000 year-opening price. One green candle alone won’t be enough. If the data is neither hot nor cool, the most likely outcome is more range-bound trading between $81,300 and $84,500 for $BTC , and between $2,410 and $2,626 for $ETH , while altcoins continue to underperform the broader market and trading volume stays low.
Key levels: On the downside, $BTC ’s first level to watch is $82,000, followed by $81,300. A break below that level without a recovery would change the logic behind the previous rebound. On the upside, watch $84,500 first; only a sustained hold there, confirmed by inflows, would put $87,722 in play. For $ETH , watch $2,410 on the downside and $2,626 on the upside. If it can’t reclaim $2,500, it will remain the weaker of the two compared with $BTC .