Real data, your read partially off *not relief, still hot enough to keep BOJ hiking.*$GNS $BAT $Q
*BOJ Corporate Goods Price Index Sep 2026 released Tue Oct 13 0850 JST:*
*YoY 6.8% vs forecast 7.6% vs Aug 7.6%* — *weakest since May 2026*, sharpest slowdown since May 2025 — but 67th straight YoY rise (5.5+ years)
- *MoM -0.3%* — *2nd straight monthly drop* (Aug -0.3% revised), *vs forecast +0.5%* — miss of 0.8pp
- *Why fell:* Agriculture/forestry/fishery *-13.3% YoY* (rice plunged after spring 2025 spike) subtracted 0.42pp — Petroleum & coal *+11.5% vs 14.7% Aug* (gov subsidies) -0.15pp — Farm prices -8.8% MoM
- *But industrial still accelerating:* Chemicals *13.3% vs 13.0%*, plastics *12.8% vs 11.3%*, Info & comms equipment *15.3% vs 14.8%*, elec machinery 5.1% vs 4.9%, nonferrous metals *40.2% vs 43.3%* still extreme
- *Import cost kicker:* Yen-based import price index *+24.5% YoY Sep* — yen weakness + Middle East conflict keeping crude elevated
- *Market:* Nikkei *-2% below 68,000* Tuesday post-holiday, 4th straight down — Yen *strengthened toward 158/$*
- *Policy:* BOJ hiked *June + Sep*, next meeting *Oct 30* with fresh quarterly forecasts — Reuters: growth easing suggests *no back-to-back hike in Oct*, but *Dec/Jan hike still priced*Sompo: "Wholesale inflation will likely re-accelerate given Middle East uncertainty"
So not modest relief for consumer inflation *pipeline still elevated, firms passing costs*, long-term business inflation expectations 2.5% (down from record 2.6%).
*BREAKING 📉 Japan CGPI/PPI Sep: +6.8% YoY vs 7.6% est, Aug 7.6% — weakest since May, 67th straight rise — MoM -0.3% vs +0.5% est, 2nd drop — Agri -13.3% YoY drove fall, but chem 13.3%, ICT 15.3% re-accelerate — Import prices +24.5% YoY on weak yen + oil — Nikkei -2% — BOJ Oct 30 likely pause, Dec hike still alive ⚡*
*BOJ Corporate Goods Price Index Sep 2026 released Tue Oct 13 0850 JST:*
*YoY 6.8% vs forecast 7.6% vs Aug 7.6%* — *weakest since May 2026*, sharpest slowdown since May 2025 — but 67th straight YoY rise (5.5+ years)
- *MoM -0.3%* — *2nd straight monthly drop* (Aug -0.3% revised), *vs forecast +0.5%* — miss of 0.8pp
- *Why fell:* Agriculture/forestry/fishery *-13.3% YoY* (rice plunged after spring 2025 spike) subtracted 0.42pp — Petroleum & coal *+11.5% vs 14.7% Aug* (gov subsidies) -0.15pp — Farm prices -8.8% MoM
- *But industrial still accelerating:* Chemicals *13.3% vs 13.0%*, plastics *12.8% vs 11.3%*, Info & comms equipment *15.3% vs 14.8%*, elec machinery 5.1% vs 4.9%, nonferrous metals *40.2% vs 43.3%* still extreme
- *Import cost kicker:* Yen-based import price index *+24.5% YoY Sep* — yen weakness + Middle East conflict keeping crude elevated
- *Market:* Nikkei *-2% below 68,000* Tuesday post-holiday, 4th straight down — Yen *strengthened toward 158/$*
- *Policy:* BOJ hiked *June + Sep*, next meeting *Oct 30* with fresh quarterly forecasts — Reuters: growth easing suggests *no back-to-back hike in Oct*, but *Dec/Jan hike still priced*Sompo: "Wholesale inflation will likely re-accelerate given Middle East uncertainty"
So not modest relief for consumer inflation *pipeline still elevated, firms passing costs*, long-term business inflation expectations 2.5% (down from record 2.6%).
*BREAKING 📉 Japan CGPI/PPI Sep: +6.8% YoY vs 7.6% est, Aug 7.6% — weakest since May, 67th straight rise — MoM -0.3% vs +0.5% est, 2nd drop — Agri -13.3% YoY drove fall, but chem 13.3%, ICT 15.3% re-accelerate — Import prices +24.5% YoY on weak yen + oil — Nikkei -2% — BOJ Oct 30 likely pause, Dec hike still alive ⚡*