The September CPI prints tomorrow at 8:30 New York time. The last one, August, came in at 0.4% month on month and was published on September 11. Here is how $ETH is positioned into it, measured right now.
Start with what the options market thinks. Thirty day implied volatility on ether has run 49.2, 50.4, 50.7, 51.9, 51.6 over the last three sessions. At 51.6 annualised, that prices a daily move of roughly 2.7%, so the print is being marked as an event rather than a formality.
Spot is not confirming that yet. Price sits at 2,503, down 1.50% on the day, inside a 2,409 to 2,543 range. Volume on the main pair was 755.0 million against a 723.5 million thirty day average, so 1.05 times a normal session across 3.92 million trades. An ordinary Tuesday.
Leverage has not moved either. Open interest on the perpetual is 2.30 million ether, down 0.1% over twenty four hours. Funding is 0.0027%, flat. Nobody added size and nobody was forced out.
Positioning is where the risk actually sits. The long short account ratio ran 2.79, 3.03, 3.03, 2.64, 2.61 across the last twenty hours. That is close to three accounts long for every one short, going into a scheduled macro print, with price already 10.8% below the thirty day high of 2,807 and down 7.2% on the week.
Three measured facts line up: implied volatility is bid, leverage is static, and the account base is crowded on one side. The side with the most positions left to unwind is the long side.
Levels into tomorrow: 2,543 caps the day, 2,409 is the floor, 2,358 is the thirty day low. The print lands at 8:30 and those are the levels it walks into.
Follow for daily breakdowns on what moves and why.
#CPIWatch #ETH #macro #altcoins #crypto
Start with what the options market thinks. Thirty day implied volatility on ether has run 49.2, 50.4, 50.7, 51.9, 51.6 over the last three sessions. At 51.6 annualised, that prices a daily move of roughly 2.7%, so the print is being marked as an event rather than a formality.
Spot is not confirming that yet. Price sits at 2,503, down 1.50% on the day, inside a 2,409 to 2,543 range. Volume on the main pair was 755.0 million against a 723.5 million thirty day average, so 1.05 times a normal session across 3.92 million trades. An ordinary Tuesday.
Leverage has not moved either. Open interest on the perpetual is 2.30 million ether, down 0.1% over twenty four hours. Funding is 0.0027%, flat. Nobody added size and nobody was forced out.
Positioning is where the risk actually sits. The long short account ratio ran 2.79, 3.03, 3.03, 2.64, 2.61 across the last twenty hours. That is close to three accounts long for every one short, going into a scheduled macro print, with price already 10.8% below the thirty day high of 2,807 and down 7.2% on the week.
Three measured facts line up: implied volatility is bid, leverage is static, and the account base is crowded on one side. The side with the most positions left to unwind is the long side.
Levels into tomorrow: 2,543 caps the day, 2,409 is the floor, 2,358 is the thirty day low. The print lands at 8:30 and those are the levels it walks into.
Follow for daily breakdowns on what moves and why.
#CPIWatch #ETH #macro #altcoins #crypto