BTC has slid from last week’s high of $85,000 to around $83,400, a drop of nearly $1,600. A lot of people have started asking me: Is this pullback over, or is the price going to keep falling?
My take is straightforward: BTC isn’t at a level where it’s worth betting on a direction right now, but ETH has a short setup I’m planning to watch today.
First, BTC. There’s nothing particularly special about $83,400. It’s neither strong support nor obvious resistance—just a transition zone. The system classifies BTC’s regime today as CHOP_MID, with a score of 5, which means the big players haven’t picked a side yet. The funding rate is +0.0083%, indicating that longs are still paying a premium, but OI is up just 0.08%—nobody is aggressively adding positions; it’s mostly a battle among existing positions. The 1H RSI is around 52, neutral to slightly bullish, but nowhere near strong. The support zone below is what’s really worth watching: the Bollinger Band midline is at $82,955, and the 0.618 Fib support is at $82,982. They’re almost perfectly aligned. If BTC holds this level, it will probably see a technical bounce. But I wouldn’t chase it before that bounce—wait for the market to pick a direction.
ETH is more interesting today. The price is moving sideways around $2,505, but the structure is forming lower highs and lower lows. OI has fallen 0.46% over the past few hours—longs are pulling out. The funding rate is +0.0084%, so longs are still paying, but their numbers are shrinking. In trader language, that combination means actively reducing positions while paying a premium, which is usually a bearish signal for the outlook. The Brahma system’s short setup is to wait for ETH to rebound to the midpoint of the FVG around $2,536. There’s a shorting confluence across the 15M and 4H timeframes there. Enter short if it rebounds to that level, place the stop at $2,569, and watch the two targets at $2,485 and $2,460. The R:R is around 1.8. This isn’t a trade to enter right now—it’s a limit order to place and wait for it to trigger.
Here are two things to keep in mind today. First, don’t chase BTC. Wait for it to show support in the $82,950–$83,000 zone, or make a move above $84,200 before taking a position. Second, if ETH climbs back to $2,530–$2,536, that’s a short entry opportunity. Set your stop before anything else, and don’t trade without one. When the market isn’t giving you a clear signal, the biggest cost isn’t missing out—it’s forcing an entry, getting shaken out, and then chasing the price.
Do you think BTC will hold $83,000 and bounce today, or will it break below $81,000 before finding a bottom? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me for a livestream and SMC lessons every evening at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao’s Not-A-Secret | Not financial advice
My take is straightforward: BTC isn’t at a level where it’s worth betting on a direction right now, but ETH has a short setup I’m planning to watch today.
First, BTC. There’s nothing particularly special about $83,400. It’s neither strong support nor obvious resistance—just a transition zone. The system classifies BTC’s regime today as CHOP_MID, with a score of 5, which means the big players haven’t picked a side yet. The funding rate is +0.0083%, indicating that longs are still paying a premium, but OI is up just 0.08%—nobody is aggressively adding positions; it’s mostly a battle among existing positions. The 1H RSI is around 52, neutral to slightly bullish, but nowhere near strong. The support zone below is what’s really worth watching: the Bollinger Band midline is at $82,955, and the 0.618 Fib support is at $82,982. They’re almost perfectly aligned. If BTC holds this level, it will probably see a technical bounce. But I wouldn’t chase it before that bounce—wait for the market to pick a direction.
ETH is more interesting today. The price is moving sideways around $2,505, but the structure is forming lower highs and lower lows. OI has fallen 0.46% over the past few hours—longs are pulling out. The funding rate is +0.0084%, so longs are still paying, but their numbers are shrinking. In trader language, that combination means actively reducing positions while paying a premium, which is usually a bearish signal for the outlook. The Brahma system’s short setup is to wait for ETH to rebound to the midpoint of the FVG around $2,536. There’s a shorting confluence across the 15M and 4H timeframes there. Enter short if it rebounds to that level, place the stop at $2,569, and watch the two targets at $2,485 and $2,460. The R:R is around 1.8. This isn’t a trade to enter right now—it’s a limit order to place and wait for it to trigger.
Here are two things to keep in mind today. First, don’t chase BTC. Wait for it to show support in the $82,950–$83,000 zone, or make a move above $84,200 before taking a position. Second, if ETH climbs back to $2,530–$2,536, that’s a short entry opportunity. Set your stop before anything else, and don’t trade without one. When the market isn’t giving you a clear signal, the biggest cost isn’t missing out—it’s forcing an entry, getting shaken out, and then chasing the price.
Do you think BTC will hold $83,000 and bounce today, or will it break below $81,000 before finding a bottom? Let’s talk in the comments.
Follow me for a livestream and SMC lessons every evening at 21:00.
🌿 Zhao’s Not-A-Secret | Not financial advice