It’s been up for three days, but the funding rate is still negative.
I’m not chasing this sharp rally at $BAT , but I don’t dare call a top either. The key is that negative sign. Today, Beijing time, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., it surged from 0.155 to 0.188, then moved sideways between 0.171 and 0.188 for over four hours. Meanwhile, Binance perpetual funding is currently around -0.014%/8h: even after a rally like this, shorts are still paying, and OI has climbed by more than 50% in a day.
Leveraged longs aren’t crowded at all—that’s the biggest difference from all the “overbought means it must fall” claims you see everywhere. It’s already up 25% from the 0.150 base where the rally began to today’s high of 0.188. At 0.176, the risk/reward is too poor to chase. If you want to get in, wait for a pullback to 0.155–0.162.
My invalidation signals are simple: a break below 0.150 would disprove this sharp rally; or, if the funding rate turns positive while the price stalls, that would mean the trade is getting crowded and the move is over.
#BAT #BasicAttentionToken
I’m not chasing this sharp rally at $BAT , but I don’t dare call a top either. The key is that negative sign. Today, Beijing time, from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m., it surged from 0.155 to 0.188, then moved sideways between 0.171 and 0.188 for over four hours. Meanwhile, Binance perpetual funding is currently around -0.014%/8h: even after a rally like this, shorts are still paying, and OI has climbed by more than 50% in a day.
Leveraged longs aren’t crowded at all—that’s the biggest difference from all the “overbought means it must fall” claims you see everywhere. It’s already up 25% from the 0.150 base where the rally began to today’s high of 0.188. At 0.176, the risk/reward is too poor to chase. If you want to get in, wait for a pullback to 0.155–0.162.
My invalidation signals are simple: a break below 0.150 would disprove this sharp rally; or, if the funding rate turns positive while the price stalls, that would mean the trade is getting crowded and the move is over.
#BAT #BasicAttentionToken