One report that moves both the dollar $ and $BTC 👀

Tomorrow, October 14, at 15:30 Kyiv time, the CPI—the U.S. Consumer Price Index—will be released. I used to think it was “about prices in American stores.” Turns out, it’s a button that sets off a chain reaction.

Here’s how I understand it:
1. What the CPI measures. How much the basket of goods and services has gone up in price. For the September report, overall inflation is expected to be around 3.7%.

2. Why the Fed cares. In September, the rate was raised to 3.75–4.00%, and the next decision is on October 27–28. The CPI is one of the main factors. Higher-than-expected figures mean tighter policy; lower figures mean looser policy.

3. What happens next. Rate expectations change, followed by bond yields and the dollar’s exchange rate. This affects assets that don’t pay interest, including crypto.

Important: it’s not inflation itself that moves the market, but how it differs from expectations. If 3.7% was expected and the figure comes in at 3.7%, the reaction may be muted.

I don’t know what the figure will be, but I’ve decided not to open any new positions in the few minutes before it comes out.

Do you trade the news or wait for the chart to settle down? Let me know in the comments👇