CPI Is Not Out Yet—Don’t Treat a “Pause in Rate Hikes” as Good News Just Yet
The worst thing in futures trading is getting the direction right, only to have your position wiped out by the first sudden spike.
At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14, the U.S. will release its September CPI data. Some institutions currently expect headline inflation to rise from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year, while core CPI may slow from 0.3% to 0.2% month over month. The key to this release lies in looking at both figures together: Have higher energy prices pushed up the overall index, and have other prices been rising just as quickly?
On the 12th, Hammack still supported further policy tightening, while the market put the odds of rates remaining unchanged in October at around 80%. This divergence shows that expectations of a pause in rate hikes do not mean the inflation problem has been solved.
For BTC, I’m more focused on how the data compare with expectations. If headline CPI reaches 3.7% but core inflation is moderate, that doesn’t necessarily mean prices will keep falling. Conversely, if core CPI comes in hotter than expected, the market could start betting on rate hikes again—even if the headline figure doesn’t look too bad—putting pressure on risk assets.
My approach is to keep positions small ahead of the release, then watch the dollar, Treasury yields, and whether BTC moves in the same direction. Don’t rush to chase the first rally, and don’t assume the first sell-off signals a trend. In a data-driven market, protecting your capital is what gives you the chance to make your next trade.#比特币反弹至8.3万美元上方
The worst thing in futures trading is getting the direction right, only to have your position wiped out by the first sudden spike.
At 8:30 p.m. Beijing time on October 14, the U.S. will release its September CPI data. Some institutions currently expect headline inflation to rise from 3.4% to 3.7% year over year, while core CPI may slow from 0.3% to 0.2% month over month. The key to this release lies in looking at both figures together: Have higher energy prices pushed up the overall index, and have other prices been rising just as quickly?
On the 12th, Hammack still supported further policy tightening, while the market put the odds of rates remaining unchanged in October at around 80%. This divergence shows that expectations of a pause in rate hikes do not mean the inflation problem has been solved.
For BTC, I’m more focused on how the data compare with expectations. If headline CPI reaches 3.7% but core inflation is moderate, that doesn’t necessarily mean prices will keep falling. Conversely, if core CPI comes in hotter than expected, the market could start betting on rate hikes again—even if the headline figure doesn’t look too bad—putting pressure on risk assets.
My approach is to keep positions small ahead of the release, then watch the dollar, Treasury yields, and whether BTC moves in the same direction. Don’t rush to chase the first rally, and don’t assume the first sell-off signals a trend. In a data-driven market, protecting your capital is what gives you the chance to make your next trade.#比特币反弹至8.3万美元上方