$BTC It dipped to 81,034 early this morning, then fully recovered during the day.
Look at the chart: it was still above 82,000 overnight, hit a low of 81,034 around 8 a.m., then printed several consecutive bullish candles. It’s now back above 83,600, up more than 3.2% from the low. So far today, it’s gained 2.2%—almost completely recovering yesterday’s bearish candle.
When I see a dip followed by a recovery like this, I look at three things: whether the low broke the previous significant low, whether volume picked up during the drop, and how quickly the price recovered. This time, it didn’t break the low, volume didn’t surge, and it recovered within a day, so I’m inclined to think this was a shakeout, not a reversal.
But the price level matters more than the pattern. Just above 83,600 is the 84,000–85,000 liquidation zone that many people on the plaza have been talking about. Further up, there’s an even larger liquidity cluster above 87,000. The next step up takes us straight into the area with the highest concentration of short positions, which is also why there’s been more talk of a “short squeeze” lately.
Here are the conditions, clearly stated: as long as it doesn’t decisively break below 81,034, I’ll stick with the shakeout thesis. If it does break below that level, there’s another lower swing low at 80,394 to watch. At that point, we’d have to treat it as a trend breakdown.
A judgment needs conditions; otherwise, it’s just a guess. Guys, at this level, I’d rather wait for it to stabilize before making a move.
#BTC #Market Structure
Look at the chart: it was still above 82,000 overnight, hit a low of 81,034 around 8 a.m., then printed several consecutive bullish candles. It’s now back above 83,600, up more than 3.2% from the low. So far today, it’s gained 2.2%—almost completely recovering yesterday’s bearish candle.
When I see a dip followed by a recovery like this, I look at three things: whether the low broke the previous significant low, whether volume picked up during the drop, and how quickly the price recovered. This time, it didn’t break the low, volume didn’t surge, and it recovered within a day, so I’m inclined to think this was a shakeout, not a reversal.
But the price level matters more than the pattern. Just above 83,600 is the 84,000–85,000 liquidation zone that many people on the plaza have been talking about. Further up, there’s an even larger liquidity cluster above 87,000. The next step up takes us straight into the area with the highest concentration of short positions, which is also why there’s been more talk of a “short squeeze” lately.
Here are the conditions, clearly stated: as long as it doesn’t decisively break below 81,034, I’ll stick with the shakeout thesis. If it does break below that level, there’s another lower swing low at 80,394 to watch. At that point, we’d have to treat it as a trend breakdown.
A judgment needs conditions; otherwise, it’s just a guess. Guys, at this level, I’d rather wait for it to stabilize before making a move.
#BTC #Market Structure