🚨 Will the Fed raise interest rates this month? Wednesday’s CPI data will be a key turning point!

Fed officials had previously leaned toward pausing rate hikes at the October 27–28 policy meeting and leaving their next move until December. But the September CPI data due out this Wednesday could upend that plan!

📌 Key takeaways and market expectations:

* Core CPI (the focus): Markets expect a 0.2% month-over-month increase. If the figure meets expectations, the Fed is more likely to leave rates unchanged in October (markets currently price in only about a 17% chance of a rate hike).

* Rate-hike warning threshold: Some institutions, including CIBC, forecast that core CPI could rise by 0.3% month over month. If it comes in above expectations, the risk of the Fed bringing forward a rate hike to October will increase significantly!

* Headline CPI: Driven by energy prices, it is expected to rise 0.6% month over month, its highest level in five months. The year-over-year increase could climb from 3.4% to 3.7%.

💡 Future rate path and market impact:

* Rising rate-hike expectations: Markets have started pricing in the possibility that the Fed could raise rates a total of three times to reverse the impact of rate cuts by the end of 2025. Some hawkish economists even believe three to four hikes may be needed to fully bring inflation under control.

* Crypto market connection: Wednesday’s CPI and Thursday’s PPI data will directly affect expectations for market liquidity. If the figures come in hotter than expected, inflation-fighting and rate-hike expectations will strengthen, potentially creating short-term volatility and pressure on risk assets, including BTC/ETH. Conversely, if inflation is moderate, markets will get a chance to catch their breath.

Keep a close eye on Wednesday’s CPI release! Will the Fed skip a hike in October or raise rates outright?

#FederalReserve #CPIdata #Macroeconomy #BinanceSquare #加密市场
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