$AZTEC This drop is pretty brutal—down 1.66% in just 15 minutes, and the key thing is that volume picked up too, to more than 3x. This is clearly no minor move.
The OI data makes it even clearer: open interest in 15-minute contracts fell 1.73%, down 167K in notional terms, and the 1-hour figure is shrinking too. Price down + open interest down—classic long-side deleveraging, with stop-loss orders getting triggered. It’s not new shorts coming in to drive the price down; it’s longs getting caught in a cascade.
The taker flow imbalance is -17%, with a buy/sell ratio of 0.71, so selling pressure is in control. What’s more, the OI anomaly percentile has surged to 96%, ranking fourth across the entire pool. It’s been in the abnormal range for several consecutive periods, which suggests this isn’t a one-off move but an ongoing contraction in positions.
24-hour trading volume is only a little over 18 million, so this isn’t a particularly large market. An OI move of this magnitude is pretty conspicuous at this scale.
The price is already approaching historically extreme levels. At this point, it could either be the final leg down or a precursor to an acceleration in the trend. I won’t try to call the bottom; first, let’s see whether OI can stabilize.
The OI data makes it even clearer: open interest in 15-minute contracts fell 1.73%, down 167K in notional terms, and the 1-hour figure is shrinking too. Price down + open interest down—classic long-side deleveraging, with stop-loss orders getting triggered. It’s not new shorts coming in to drive the price down; it’s longs getting caught in a cascade.
The taker flow imbalance is -17%, with a buy/sell ratio of 0.71, so selling pressure is in control. What’s more, the OI anomaly percentile has surged to 96%, ranking fourth across the entire pool. It’s been in the abnormal range for several consecutive periods, which suggests this isn’t a one-off move but an ongoing contraction in positions.
24-hour trading volume is only a little over 18 million, so this isn’t a particularly large market. An OI move of this magnitude is pretty conspicuous at this scale.
The price is already approaching historically extreme levels. At this point, it could either be the final leg down or a precursor to an acceleration in the trend. I won’t try to call the bottom; first, let’s see whether OI can stabilize.