$Niu Lai’s conditions for a morning rebound and recovery were triggered in succession. The full 1-hour period from 12:00 to 13:00 rose from 0.07298 to 0.07560, closing above both previously established levels of 0.0728 and 0.0748. Before 14:00, spot prices climbed further to around 0.07709, rebounding approximately 15.4% from the low of 0.06680. There had been no formal entry plan, so no entry was made.
During the strongest hour of the rebound, contract trading volume was about $2.2 million and the price rose rapidly, but open interest still fell 0.33% over the past 3 hours, while the long/short account ratio was around 1.02. The verifiable facts are that the price rose and short-term positions declined; my assessment is that short covering and deleveraging-driven recovery were the main drivers, rather than sustained accumulation of new long positions.
Although the structure has improved, the current price remains close to the stronger resistance at the 4-hour EMA50, around 0.07844. If it holds above 0.0784 for a full 1-hour period, the next level to watch is 0.0803. If it falls back below 0.0756, the rapid recovery is weakening, with 0.0735 as the next level to watch. #牛来 #午间复盘 #RiskWatch
During the strongest hour of the rebound, contract trading volume was about $2.2 million and the price rose rapidly, but open interest still fell 0.33% over the past 3 hours, while the long/short account ratio was around 1.02. The verifiable facts are that the price rose and short-term positions declined; my assessment is that short covering and deleveraging-driven recovery were the main drivers, rather than sustained accumulation of new long positions.
Although the structure has improved, the current price remains close to the stronger resistance at the 4-hour EMA50, around 0.07844. If it holds above 0.0784 for a full 1-hour period, the next level to watch is 0.0803. If it falls back below 0.0756, the rapid recovery is weakening, with 0.0735 as the next level to watch. #牛来 #午间复盘 #RiskWatch