Today is October 13, 2026. I recently went away on a trip for a week and just got back yesterday. There was plenty of negative macro news last week. Bitcoin was rejected at its previous high of 87K and pulled back, bottoming at the key 80K level. It briefly bounced to 84K over the weekend, but because it left a CME futures gap, it filled that gap yesterday, Monday. As of my last post, it had fallen to a low of 81K and is now starting to V-rebound to 82K. In fact, if you open the four-hour chart and look at Bitcoin, it’s formed a very textbook W bottom—and specifically, a W with a higher low on the right: the right-hand V is higher than the left-hand V. The left V bottomed at 80,393 and the right V at 81,033. This W-bottom pattern is bullish, but if we only look at the chart, we don’t have enough information. Let’s turn to the macro picture. This latest drop was actually triggered by hawkish remarks yesterday from Fed voting member Hammack. She thinks the Fed should make small, frequent rate adjustments to bring inflation back to 2%. These comments spooked the market and sparked panic selling. Anyone who has been following my posts probably knows one of my views: I’ve always believed that although Fed officials are publicly nonpartisan and neutral, in reality they each have their own political leanings. The rate cuts ahead of the 2024 U.S. presidential election are a good example. Hammack’s remarks at this particular moment are the same kind of thing. Let’s open the Nasdaq weekly chart. In early June, the Nasdaq hit a new high of 27,190, then pulled back for two months. It has since climbed steadily through the correction and set a new high of 27,722, and has now pulled back to 27,245. The Nasdaq is now at a key weekly breakout point. If the breakout fails, it will have formed a false M-top breakout and will definitely see another pullback. If it succeeds, it will be at an all-time high, with no overhead selling pressure, and could continue soaring. At this crucial weekly breakout juncture, it’s clear that Trump’s camp is doing everything it can to prepare to release positive news. The weekend rally was also partly due to Trump trying to mediate the Russia-Ukraine war and get both sides to agree to a 60-day ceasefire, so they’d stop bombing oil refineries. But after the Republicans released positive news on Sunday, these so-called nonpartisan officials came out with hawkish remarks on Monday to release negative news. If you believe Hammack is nonpartisan, I’ve got a bridge to sell you. Let me get straight to the point: Hammack is actually like Powell was back then—privately, she’s pro-Democrat. Before the midterm elections, the Democrats will do whatever they can to stop U.S. stocks from making new highs; they’d love to see a massive M-top crash. The Republicans are the opposite. I’ll make a bold prediction: over the next two weeks, Trump will release all kinds of positive news and use it to help the stock market break above the M-top neckline and hit a record high before the midterms. As for the means, I think the easiest would be to alter the data. So I believe this month’s Wednesday consumer index, CPI, and whatever other indexes are coming out won’t be too bad; there’ll probably be some quiet massaging of the numbers, and they’ll also find ways to release positive news. So I don’t think a rate hike is possible this month. Before then, any drop caused by talk of a rate hike or an event that might lead to one is a chance to get in, not a reason to get scared and get out. Here’s a bold take: although October has seen a nearly 10% pullback from its high to its low, I believe we’ll end the month with a green candle, and in the next 18 days we may even see Bitcoin break through the major resistance at 87K. I know my view goes against most bloggers’ opinions, because I do look at what other people are saying. At least 15 out of 20 bloggers in the market are bearish right now; the other five are saying both bullish and bearish things, which is basically the same as saying nothing. A bullish view for October is pretty contrarian. People say your position determines your perspective, and since I’m a bull, I’m bullish. That explanation wouldn’t be wrong. But I’ll stick with what I’ve said before: once Bitcoin breaks above the 50-day MA on the weekly chart, the bull market’s start is inevitable. Whether you trade or invest, it goes against human nature. Anyone can be bullish when prices rise and bearish when they fall; saying both is just empty talk. In the end, only a minority will make it through the entire bull market.