This morning, the ETF figures for 10/12 were still incomplete, so I wouldn’t make up a story to explain the price action. Farside has now filled in the numbers: outflows were modest—not a mass exit, but there were no buyers stepping in either.
U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million on 10/12, all from IBIT; every other fund recorded zero flows. Last week, outflows were −$485 million on 10/7 and −$244 million on 10/8, so this time they were much smaller. BTC closed down at 82,787 on 10/12, which looks more like a lack of follow-through from buyers than the kind of large-scale redemptions we saw last week.
ETH is more noteworthy: net outflows were $85.4 million on 10/12 (ETHA −$75.1 million, ETHE −$10.3 million). That marks 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows since 9/29, totaling about −$783 million. ETH/BTC hit an intraday low of 0.0297 today, its lowest in nearly 10 days.
BTC recovered to around 83,340 and ETH to around 2,507 during today’s session, but the 10/13 daily candle won’t close until 08:00 on 10/14 (UTC+8) / 00:00 UTC. An intraday recovery doesn’t count.
If you’re waiting for “ETF inflows to return” before turning bullish on ETH, that condition hasn’t been met yet.
Here are three things to watch next:
1. Whether the 10/13 daily close can reclaim 82,787
2. When ETH ETFs record their first day of net inflows
3. U.S. September CPI on 10/14 at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC
$BTC $ETH | Sources: Farside (10/12 figures complete), Binance candlestick data, BLS | Not investment advice
U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $65.4 million on 10/12, all from IBIT; every other fund recorded zero flows. Last week, outflows were −$485 million on 10/7 and −$244 million on 10/8, so this time they were much smaller. BTC closed down at 82,787 on 10/12, which looks more like a lack of follow-through from buyers than the kind of large-scale redemptions we saw last week.
ETH is more noteworthy: net outflows were $85.4 million on 10/12 (ETHA −$75.1 million, ETHE −$10.3 million). That marks 10 consecutive trading days of net outflows since 9/29, totaling about −$783 million. ETH/BTC hit an intraday low of 0.0297 today, its lowest in nearly 10 days.
BTC recovered to around 83,340 and ETH to around 2,507 during today’s session, but the 10/13 daily candle won’t close until 08:00 on 10/14 (UTC+8) / 00:00 UTC. An intraday recovery doesn’t count.
If you’re waiting for “ETF inflows to return” before turning bullish on ETH, that condition hasn’t been met yet.
Here are three things to watch next:
1. Whether the 10/13 daily close can reclaim 82,787
2. When ETH ETFs record their first day of net inflows
3. U.S. September CPI on 10/14 at 20:30 (UTC+8) / 12:30 UTC
$BTC $ETH | Sources: Farside (10/12 figures complete), Binance candlestick data, BLS | Not investment advice