$Niu Lai: The key point today isn’t that it fell 9%, but that leveraged positions remain higher than they were 24 hours ago despite the sharp sell-off. Before 11:00, spot was around 0.07101, down 9.10% over 24 hours, with a low of 0.06680; yet perpetual open interest rose 1.84%, indicating that new positions were still being opened amid the volatility. The risk of liquidations in either direction has not gone away.
The sharpest full one-hour candle fell from 0.07210 to 0.06698, with contract trading volume of about $4.13 million—roughly 9.6 times the average of the previous five hours. The following hour rebounded to close at 0.07079, but open interest fell just 0.32% over the past three hours. The verifiable facts are that selling volume surged and the rebound was also active; my assessment is that this is a technical recovery following stop-loss selling, and a trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed.
The current price remains below the one-hour EMA20, around 0.07284. A full one-hour close back above 0.0728 would indicate that the decline has stabilized; holding above 0.0748 would signal structural improvement. If the price falls below 0.0703 again, watch for another test of 0.0668. #牛来 #热点解读 #RiskWatch
The sharpest full one-hour candle fell from 0.07210 to 0.06698, with contract trading volume of about $4.13 million—roughly 9.6 times the average of the previous five hours. The following hour rebounded to close at 0.07079, but open interest fell just 0.32% over the past three hours. The verifiable facts are that selling volume surged and the rebound was also active; my assessment is that this is a technical recovery following stop-loss selling, and a trend reversal cannot yet be confirmed.
The current price remains below the one-hour EMA20, around 0.07284. A full one-hour close back above 0.0728 would indicate that the decline has stabilized; holding above 0.0748 would signal structural improvement. If the price falls below 0.0703 again, watch for another test of 0.0668. #牛来 #热点解读 #RiskWatch