Bottom line: SOL’s current decline cannot yet be defined as a trend reversal, but negative funding rates should not be treated as a signal that the price has bottomed either. The 101.56–105.35 USDT range is a short-term support zone to watch. For a rebound, the first test is whether SOL can reclaim 108.79; only a further move above 110.96–112.54 would make the recovery more convincing.
At 10:10 Beijing time on October 13, Binance spot SOLUSDT was around 105.52 USDT, down 5.329% over 24 hours, with a high of 113.40 and a low of 101.69. Spot trading volume was about 291 million USDT. USDT-margined SOLUSDT perpetuals were around 105.45 USDT, down 5.375% over 24 hours, with contract trading volume of about 2.577 billion USDT. These are different markets with different reporting methods and should not be added together to represent net capital inflows.
Looking at the closed 4-hour candlestick, the one from 04:00 to 08:00 Beijing time opened at 108.26, reached a high of 108.79, a low of 105.35, and closed at 105.70, with a trading volume of 3,783,168.69 SOL. The previous candlestick's volume was about 3,414,093.77 SOL, an increase of approximately 10.8%. The price continued to fall as volume expanded, indicating that selling pressure remains below. The current 08:00–12:00 candlestick has not yet closed, so prices touched intraday cannot be treated as a new closing confirmation.
Leverage data does not indicate that positions have been fully closed. Public historical readings rose from 8,498,998 contracts at 23:00 on October 12 Beijing time to 8,598,817 at 10:00 on October 13, an increase of about 1.18%. However, due to the price decline, OI's notional value fell from approximately 924 million USDT to about 905 million USDT, a decrease of roughly 2.03%. The current OI reading is about 8,610,133 contracts, and the latest funding rate is -0.00003273, equivalent to approximately -0.003273% per 8 hours—negative, but not extreme.
This combination is more consistent with “prices falling while futures positions remain contested” than with deleveraging having been completed. If the price continues to weaken while the OI contract count rises instead of falling, watch for volatility from shorts adding positions or from traders switching sides. If the price rebounds but OI drops rapidly, this should initially be viewed only as a position adjustment, not as a trend reversal.
Focus on three things next:
First, can the 101.56–105.35 range hold on a 4-hour close? If 101.56 is decisively broken, the current support assessment is invalidated, and lower-level buying support will need to be reassessed.
Second, can a rebound reclaim 105.70–108.79? Reclaiming this range would count only as a recovery, not a breakout.
Third, if the price rises further, can volume and OI move in tandem steadily, and can the price break above 110.96–112.54? The 113.38–113.40 range is the previous high resistance zone. If the price rebounds while OI falls rapidly, remain alert to the possibility of another pullback after the rebound.
Risk warning: The above is a market observation based on publicly available Binance market data, closed 4-hour candlesticks, OI, and funding rates; it is not investment advice. Intraday prices, OI, and funding rates fluctuate continuously. Futures trading also involves additional risks, including liquidation, slippage, and funding rates.
Data sources (retrieved at 10:10 Beijing time, October 13, 2026):
24-hour spot market data: https://api.binance.com/api/v3/ticker/24hr?symbol=SOLUSDT
4-hour spot candlesticks: https://api.binance.com/api/v3/klines?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=4h&limit=8
24-hour USDⓈ-M futures market data: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/ticker/24hr?symbol=SOLUSDT
4-hour USDⓈ-M futures candlesticks: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/klines?symbol=SOLUSDT&interval=4h&limit=8
Historical OI: https://fapi.binance.com/futures/data/openInterestHist?symbol=SOLUSDT&period=1h&limit=12
Current OI: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/openInterest?symbol=SOLUSDT
Funding rate and mark price: https://fapi.binance.com/fapi/v1/premiumIndex?symbol=SOLUSDT