Tomorrow at 8:30 p.m., everyone in crypto will stop what they’re doing to watch one number—the U.S. September CPI.
It will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 14, which is 8:30 p.m. in Hong Kong. The market expects an annual rate of 3.7%, higher than August’s 3.4%; the expected monthly core rate is 0.2%. And this is the last inflation report before the Fed’s October 28 rate decision, making it especially significant.
$BTC is currently at 81310, down 3.054% over 24 hours, with a high of 84352 and a low of 81285.62—it’s hovering near the low. The U.S. Dollar Index just hit an 18-month high (around 102.56), and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.35% on October 8. Both are major weights hanging over risk assets.
Support is at 81285.62 (the 24-hour low); if that breaks, the next level to watch is the round-number mark of 80000. Resistance is at 84352 (the 24-hour high).
There are two possible scenarios: if CPI comes in hot (annual rate ≥3.7%), expectations of rate hikes will keep heating up, and BTC will likely test 80000; if CPI comes in cool (annual rate ≤3.4%), rate-hike bets will ease, and BTC could rebound to challenge 84352.
I’m sitting this one out and won’t make a move before the data comes out. My invalidation condition: if BTC’s daily candle closes back above 84352, this bearish scenario is off the table.
⚠️Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice.
#BTC #CPI #FederalReserve
It will be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Wednesday, October 14, which is 8:30 p.m. in Hong Kong. The market expects an annual rate of 3.7%, higher than August’s 3.4%; the expected monthly core rate is 0.2%. And this is the last inflation report before the Fed’s October 28 rate decision, making it especially significant.
$BTC is currently at 81310, down 3.054% over 24 hours, with a high of 84352 and a low of 81285.62—it’s hovering near the low. The U.S. Dollar Index just hit an 18-month high (around 102.56), and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.35% on October 8. Both are major weights hanging over risk assets.
Support is at 81285.62 (the 24-hour low); if that breaks, the next level to watch is the round-number mark of 80000. Resistance is at 84352 (the 24-hour high).
There are two possible scenarios: if CPI comes in hot (annual rate ≥3.7%), expectations of rate hikes will keep heating up, and BTC will likely test 80000; if CPI comes in cool (annual rate ≤3.4%), rate-hike bets will ease, and BTC could rebound to challenge 84352.
I’m sitting this one out and won’t make a move before the data comes out. My invalidation condition: if BTC’s daily candle closes back above 84352, this bearish scenario is off the table.
⚠️Just my personal ramblings—not investment advice.
#BTC #CPI #FederalReserve