The “rotation into altcoins” this Monday, 12/10, didn’t last the day: at 22:55 UTC, 27 of the 29 most-traded altcoins on Binance spot are in the red over 24h, with a median decline of -5.3%, versus -1.4% for $BTC .
The morning’s narrative had numbers behind it. At 10:20 UTC, CoinDesk noted the CoinDesk 80 was up +3% over 24h, more than double the CoinDesk 5 (+1.2%). In my Binance basket, the median altcoin peaked at +0.9% around 05:00 UTC.
Twelve hours later, the data tell a different story. Since 00:00 UTC, the median altcoin is down 5.8%, $ETH 2,2%, and BTC 1.5%. The biggest pullbacks are in the coins that had risen the most: STRK -29.7%, W -14.5%, $NEAR -12.6%, ENA -12.2% over 24h. BTC dominance is at 59.3% (CoinGecko).
The same CoinDesk article offered the key: one year after the 10/10/2025 flash crash, BTC and ETH order book depth has returned to its pre-crash level in dollar terms, while altcoin liquidity continues to erode. An altcoin that gains 5% on a thin order book can give it all back just as quickly.
My take: the morning’s rally looked more like a bounce on thin order books than genuine inflows. US spot BTC ETFs saw $681M in outflows last week (SoSoValue), and US CPI comes out Wednesday, 14/10.
Until then, there are two paths. If BTC holds the $82,300 zone (Binance’s 24h low) and ETFs return to net inflows, altcoins could catch their breath, but dominance will need to stabilize first. If CPI comes in higher than expected, those same thin order books will amplify the decline in altcoins far more than in BTC.
Method: top 29 USDT pairs by 24h volume on Binance spot, excluding BTC, ETH, stablecoins, and bStocks; simple median.
Ahead of CPI, are you trimming your altcoin holdings or waiting for BTC dominance to reverse?
#Altcoins #Bitcoin
The morning’s narrative had numbers behind it. At 10:20 UTC, CoinDesk noted the CoinDesk 80 was up +3% over 24h, more than double the CoinDesk 5 (+1.2%). In my Binance basket, the median altcoin peaked at +0.9% around 05:00 UTC.
Twelve hours later, the data tell a different story. Since 00:00 UTC, the median altcoin is down 5.8%, $ETH 2,2%, and BTC 1.5%. The biggest pullbacks are in the coins that had risen the most: STRK -29.7%, W -14.5%, $NEAR -12.6%, ENA -12.2% over 24h. BTC dominance is at 59.3% (CoinGecko).
The same CoinDesk article offered the key: one year after the 10/10/2025 flash crash, BTC and ETH order book depth has returned to its pre-crash level in dollar terms, while altcoin liquidity continues to erode. An altcoin that gains 5% on a thin order book can give it all back just as quickly.
My take: the morning’s rally looked more like a bounce on thin order books than genuine inflows. US spot BTC ETFs saw $681M in outflows last week (SoSoValue), and US CPI comes out Wednesday, 14/10.
Until then, there are two paths. If BTC holds the $82,300 zone (Binance’s 24h low) and ETFs return to net inflows, altcoins could catch their breath, but dominance will need to stabilize first. If CPI comes in higher than expected, those same thin order books will amplify the decline in altcoins far more than in BTC.
Method: top 29 USDT pairs by 24h volume on Binance spot, excluding BTC, ETH, stablecoins, and bStocks; simple median.
Ahead of CPI, are you trimming your altcoin holdings or waiting for BTC dominance to reverse?
#Altcoins #Bitcoin