Something happened in the Strait of Hormuz again in the early hours: the third supertanker in 48 hours was hit and caught fire, sending Brent straight above $105. With a Saudi airport attacked and anti-ship missiles headed toward the port of Fujairah, this is a full-blown supply scare.

Interestingly, $BTC stayed pretty restrained this time and didn't go haywire along with oil prices. But don't celebrate too soon: every further jump in oil prices pushes inflation expectations higher, and the debate over whether to hike rates again in October will only get louder. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $90, with an extreme-case scenario of $125. Keep a close eye on this risk premium.

On the news front, there was no shortage of good news. Saylor's Strategy bought another 250 $BTC and also repurchased $192 million worth of STRC preferred shares. Buying the dip—conviction at full throttle. Hong Kong's Pando plans to list its $SOL spot ETF on October 13, with a 0.6% fee that goes head-to-head with ChinaAMC. Miner IREN also landed a multi-year AI computing deal with Anthropic. The mining sector's pivot to AI is really working.

My view is simple: geopolitics can't be predicted, so don't bet your positions on a direction. If oil keeps surging, $ETH $SOL could also get caught in the fallout, but institutional accumulation hasn't stopped either. The two forces are wrestling it out. Keep plenty of dry powder and manage your position size.

NFA DYOR

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