W’s impulsive rally is over. $W has fallen from around last night’s high of $0.0317 to $0.0218, dropping 30% in a few hours and breaking below the $0.0264 Fibonacci support—the key line of defense in the previous bullish structure. A break is a break.
To be honest, the catalysts behind this rally weren’t exactly fresh: the HYPE integration and Ripple partnership, both touted again on October 2, were old news dug up and pushed higher on hype and leveraged positioning (open interest, or OI, briefly surged to $68.5 million). Once the old news lost its momentum, profit-taking was only to be expected.
More concerning, 50.4 million tokens are due to unlock on October 16 (less than 1% of the circulating supply, but still a sword of Damocles hanging over market sentiment). It will be hard for the bulls to muster the will to mount a comeback before the unlock.
The short-term trend has turned downward. Don’t try to catch a falling knife before the unlock. Invalidation: if the 4-hour candle closes back above $0.026 and holds there, this assessment is void.
To be honest, the catalysts behind this rally weren’t exactly fresh: the HYPE integration and Ripple partnership, both touted again on October 2, were old news dug up and pushed higher on hype and leveraged positioning (open interest, or OI, briefly surged to $68.5 million). Once the old news lost its momentum, profit-taking was only to be expected.
More concerning, 50.4 million tokens are due to unlock on October 16 (less than 1% of the circulating supply, but still a sword of Damocles hanging over market sentiment). It will be hard for the bulls to muster the will to mount a comeback before the unlock.
The short-term trend has turned downward. Don’t try to catch a falling knife before the unlock. Invalidation: if the 4-hour candle closes back above $0.026 and holds there, this assessment is void.