For $BTC , there are really only two scenarios in the short term.
Either we reduce risk and establish a bottom before the midterm elections, or we rally during the midterms and then reduce risk afterward.
Let’s be real: the bulls really don’t want to lose 80K. If they do, I’m concerned we could see a deeper pullback, targeting 76K–78K. That’s not my preferred scenario. I’m expecting a larger pullback from the 90K range, down to the low 80Ks.
If we move down to 76K, that would also mean my 76K long position makes a round trip. I’m still fully invested. The ideal bullish scenario is for us to push higher from here into the midterm elections, break out of the range to new highs, and then see the typical post-election risk reduction.
For that scenario to play out, BTC needs to start bouncing as soon as possible.
If BTC does break below 80K, I’ll consider adding to my spot position, increasing my long exposure, and targeting a move to 95K and above.
Either we reduce risk and establish a bottom before the midterm elections, or we rally during the midterms and then reduce risk afterward.
Let’s be real: the bulls really don’t want to lose 80K. If they do, I’m concerned we could see a deeper pullback, targeting 76K–78K. That’s not my preferred scenario. I’m expecting a larger pullback from the 90K range, down to the low 80Ks.
If we move down to 76K, that would also mean my 76K long position makes a round trip. I’m still fully invested. The ideal bullish scenario is for us to push higher from here into the midterm elections, break out of the range to new highs, and then see the typical post-election risk reduction.
For that scenario to play out, BTC needs to start bouncing as soon as possible.
If BTC does break below 80K, I’ll consider adding to my spot position, increasing my long exposure, and targeting a move to 95K and above.