ARK calls for a five-year bullish outlook, while low option volatility is sounding the alarm
ARK is calling for Bitcoin to be bullish over the next five years, and the stablecoin and AI narratives sound encouraging too. Should you hold your coins tight? But I have to pour a bucket of cold water on that: the options market is telling you the calm is an illusion with volatility at a five-year low 📉.
Some people think that backing from long-term heavyweights means you can sleep easy, using long-term logic to hedge short-term risk. Wrong! The vacuum left by reduced institutional hedging is far more dangerous than it seems. No matter how grand the macro narrative is, it cannot change the real vacuum in options pricing.
Next, keep a close eye on changes in options positioning and shifts in macro interest rates. When everyone is sighing that the market is boring, a storm has often already been forming its fist.
Looking at the placid, lifeless market is like the sea before a storm: the calmer the surface, the more the undercurrents below can smash people against the rocks 🌊.
#比特币期权波动率创五年新低 $BTC
ARK is calling for Bitcoin to be bullish over the next five years, and the stablecoin and AI narratives sound encouraging too. Should you hold your coins tight? But I have to pour a bucket of cold water on that: the options market is telling you the calm is an illusion with volatility at a five-year low 📉.
Some people think that backing from long-term heavyweights means you can sleep easy, using long-term logic to hedge short-term risk. Wrong! The vacuum left by reduced institutional hedging is far more dangerous than it seems. No matter how grand the macro narrative is, it cannot change the real vacuum in options pricing.
Next, keep a close eye on changes in options positioning and shifts in macro interest rates. When everyone is sighing that the market is boring, a storm has often already been forming its fist.
Looking at the placid, lifeless market is like the sea before a storm: the calmer the surface, the more the undercurrents below can smash people against the rocks 🌊.
#比特币期权波动率创五年新低 $BTC