$S bounced into supply and was pushed back down, showing that the recovery is not strong enough to repair the H1 bearish structure.
Price closed at 0.058060, back below the CHoCH at 0.058640, while the recovery high at 0.063320 remains below the 0.068980 high.
The latest bounce reached 0.061170 and then failed, with volume at 1.05× the average of the previous 20 candles — showing greater participation, but not an extraordinary sell-off.
Wyckoff suggests potential distribution and a developing markdown; the heatmap shows estimated liquidations around 0.0634–0.0642 above and 0.0535–0.0541 below. But price has moved away from the entry, so chasing a Short risks selling just before support.
Will the next bounce remain trapped at supply, or will sellers have to prove they are still in control?
CONDITIONAL SHORT MAP — $S / H1
* Trigger: H1 close below 0.058640 — confirmed at the snapshot.
* Entry: 0.061000–0.062000.
* Confirmation: wait for a bounce to retest supply to fail, with an H1 candle confirming price rejection.
* SL: 0.063600.
* TP1: 0.055190 → 3.00R.
* TP2: 0.054980 → 3.10R.
* Setup invalidation: H1 close above 0.063320.
BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET
R is calculated from the 0.061500 midpoint, excluding fees and slippage; recalculate using the actual fill price. TP1 and TP2 are quite close together; do not chase the Short or sell directly into demand.
Price closed at 0.058060, back below the CHoCH at 0.058640, while the recovery high at 0.063320 remains below the 0.068980 high.
The latest bounce reached 0.061170 and then failed, with volume at 1.05× the average of the previous 20 candles — showing greater participation, but not an extraordinary sell-off.
Wyckoff suggests potential distribution and a developing markdown; the heatmap shows estimated liquidations around 0.0634–0.0642 above and 0.0535–0.0541 below. But price has moved away from the entry, so chasing a Short risks selling just before support.
Will the next bounce remain trapped at supply, or will sellers have to prove they are still in control?
CONDITIONAL SHORT MAP — $S / H1
* Trigger: H1 close below 0.058640 — confirmed at the snapshot.
* Entry: 0.061000–0.062000.
* Confirmation: wait for a bounce to retest supply to fail, with an H1 candle confirming price rejection.
* SL: 0.063600.
* TP1: 0.055190 → 3.00R.
* TP2: 0.054980 → 3.10R.
* Setup invalidation: H1 close above 0.063320.
BEARISH BIAS — NO ENTRY YET
R is calculated from the 0.061500 midpoint, excluding fees and slippage; recalculate using the actual fill price. TP1 and TP2 are quite close together; do not chase the Short or sell directly into demand.