Bitcoin ($BTC ) erased its entire weekend rebound in 7 hours: $84,352 at 06:00 UTC on 12/10 on Binance, then a low of $82,651 around 13:00 UTC, down 2%. The price fell back below its pre-Sunday-rally level.
The timeline:
7 and 8/10: US spot BTC ETFs saw outflows of $487.1M and then $244.1M (SoSoValue). On the 9th, a small rebound to +$21.1M, but the week ended at -$681M, the worst since June according to CoinDesk.
11/10, 15:00 UTC: headlines about a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” and falling oil prices sent BTC from $83,130 to $83,909 in one hour.
12/10, 06:00 to 13:00 UTC: peak at $84,352, then a slide. On Binance USD-M futures, the taker buy/sell ratio fell to 0.58 and then 0.64 during the two down candles, while open interest fell by about 1% (94,945 to 94,052 BTC). More likely longs closing than new shorts opening. $ETH followed suit, falling from $2,577 to about $2,530.
My take: this rebound was driven by a geopolitical headline, not a return of ETF buyers. Without inflows, the market remains at the mercy of macro factors, with the US 10-year yield at 5.24% (CNBC, cited by Decrypt).
Next up: US CPI on Wednesday, 14/10. If the reading is reassuring and $82,000 holds (support cited by analysts interviewed by CoinDesk), a move back toward $83,130 and then $84,352 would be logical. If inflation comes in hotter than expected and yields rise, a break below $82,000 would open the way to the $78,700 area (61.8% retracement cited by FXStreet).
Are you waiting for CPI before taking a position, or does a return of ETF inflows matter more to you than the inflation reading?
#Bitcoin #CPI
The timeline:
7 and 8/10: US spot BTC ETFs saw outflows of $487.1M and then $244.1M (SoSoValue). On the 9th, a small rebound to +$21.1M, but the week ended at -$681M, the worst since June according to CoinDesk.
11/10, 15:00 UTC: headlines about a Russia-Ukraine “energy ceasefire” and falling oil prices sent BTC from $83,130 to $83,909 in one hour.
12/10, 06:00 to 13:00 UTC: peak at $84,352, then a slide. On Binance USD-M futures, the taker buy/sell ratio fell to 0.58 and then 0.64 during the two down candles, while open interest fell by about 1% (94,945 to 94,052 BTC). More likely longs closing than new shorts opening. $ETH followed suit, falling from $2,577 to about $2,530.
My take: this rebound was driven by a geopolitical headline, not a return of ETF buyers. Without inflows, the market remains at the mercy of macro factors, with the US 10-year yield at 5.24% (CNBC, cited by Decrypt).
Next up: US CPI on Wednesday, 14/10. If the reading is reassuring and $82,000 holds (support cited by analysts interviewed by CoinDesk), a move back toward $83,130 and then $84,352 would be logical. If inflation comes in hotter than expected and yields rise, a break below $82,000 would open the way to the $78,700 area (61.8% retracement cited by FXStreet).
Are you waiting for CPI before taking a position, or does a return of ETF inflows matter more to you than the inflation reading?
#Bitcoin #CPI