$TRUMP There hasn’t really been much of a new story this month—the price has been locked between 1.8 and 2.24 since mid-September. It closed at 1.95 today, up 4%, which at best makes up about 60% of yesterday’s losses.
What’s really worth interpreting is volume. In early October, daily trading volume was still as high as 370 million; now it’s around 130 million, down by 60%. The price hasn’t broken to new lows, but fewer people are trading. Low-volatility sideways action like this usually ends one of two ways: either it’s consolidation ahead of an event-driven rally, or a false equilibrium before a major move.
$TRUMP has fallen from its ATH of 73.43 to 1.95, a drop of 97.35%, and its market cap is still 550 million. But this asset isn’t fundamentally supported by valuation—it’s an event-driven meme machine. Its margin of safety never comes from having “fallen a lot”; it depends on when the next major news breaks. The longer it trades sideways, the more weight the news carries and the less reliable technical levels become. If the 1.8 support level breaks on heavy volume, the previous low may not hold. Conversely, if Trump-related news becomes a hot topic again and volume climbs back above 250 million, that would finally break the deadlock.
The most frustrating part of the current setup is this: bagholders are waiting for good news to bail them out, while sidelined investors are waiting for those bagholders to capitulate first. Both sides have solid reasons for their stance, but they’re pointing in exactly opposite directions.
What’s really worth interpreting is volume. In early October, daily trading volume was still as high as 370 million; now it’s around 130 million, down by 60%. The price hasn’t broken to new lows, but fewer people are trading. Low-volatility sideways action like this usually ends one of two ways: either it’s consolidation ahead of an event-driven rally, or a false equilibrium before a major move.
$TRUMP has fallen from its ATH of 73.43 to 1.95, a drop of 97.35%, and its market cap is still 550 million. But this asset isn’t fundamentally supported by valuation—it’s an event-driven meme machine. Its margin of safety never comes from having “fallen a lot”; it depends on when the next major news breaks. The longer it trades sideways, the more weight the news carries and the less reliable technical levels become. If the 1.8 support level breaks on heavy volume, the previous low may not hold. Conversely, if Trump-related news becomes a hot topic again and volume climbs back above 250 million, that would finally break the deadlock.
The most frustrating part of the current setup is this: bagholders are waiting for good news to bail them out, while sidelined investors are waiting for those bagholders to capitulate first. Both sides have solid reasons for their stance, but they’re pointing in exactly opposite directions.