Bets on 3.7% are ramping up
Polymarket puts the odds of U.S. September CPI coming in at 3.7% year over year at 42.5%, with 3.6% at 41%. An account with a 51% win rate in the economics category and $136,500 in net profits just dropped $2,080 on “Yes” at 3.7%—6.86 times its usual median bet.
August CPI was up 3.4% year over year. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% over the month, accounting for more than a third of the increase. With energy and transportation costs continuing to feed through, a September reading of 3.6% to 3.7% wouldn’t be far-fetched. The Fed has already raised rates by 25 bps in September, to 3.75%–4.00%. Its next meeting is October 27–28, and CPI is due two weeks earlier—so the hawks could send markets tumbling first.
Before the data comes out, will $BTC dip first or shoot straight up? Where are your stop-losses on your long positions? Share your entry price and position size in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI #FederalReserve
Polymarket puts the odds of U.S. September CPI coming in at 3.7% year over year at 42.5%, with 3.6% at 41%. An account with a 51% win rate in the economics category and $136,500 in net profits just dropped $2,080 on “Yes” at 3.7%—6.86 times its usual median bet.
August CPI was up 3.4% year over year. Gasoline prices rose 3.9% over the month, accounting for more than a third of the increase. With energy and transportation costs continuing to feed through, a September reading of 3.6% to 3.7% wouldn’t be far-fetched. The Fed has already raised rates by 25 bps in September, to 3.75%–4.00%. Its next meeting is October 27–28, and CPI is due two weeks earlier—so the hawks could send markets tumbling first.
Before the data comes out, will $BTC dip first or shoot straight up? Where are your stop-losses on your long positions? Share your entry price and position size in the comments.
$BTC $ETH
#CPI #FederalReserve