In August, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes wrote an article called “Yen-quake,” arguing that the US and Japan would work together to reform the Fed’s FIMA mechanism to boost the yen—effectively printing money, which would be bullish for BTC. He also named ENA, saying it had 5–10x upside over the next few months.
Two months later, let’s check the numbers:
ENA has risen from $0.09 when he published the article to $0.23, or 2.5x. The direction was right, but it’s still a long way from 5–10x. More importantly, there’s still been no official announcement of any FIMA rule changes—the main switch hasn’t even been flipped. BTC is still 33% below last October’s high, and ETH is 49% below.
My approach is not to guess which way prices will go, but to watch three signals: whether FIMA rules actually change; whether USDe supply returns to $7.5 billion (the threshold for ENA’s buyback switch; it’s only at $5 billion now, half a billion? no, $2.5 billion short); and whether USD/JPY and gold show sustained unusual moves. Money usually moves faster than announcements.
Until those signals appear, this article is just an analytical framework for me, not a trading instruction.
One more thing: the original article said USDe’s circulating supply had fallen 75% from its peak, but actual on-chain data puts it at around 66% (DefiLlama, October 7). Not a huge difference, but even figures from big influencers should be checked before you cite them.
$BTC $ETH $ENA
Two months later, let’s check the numbers:
ENA has risen from $0.09 when he published the article to $0.23, or 2.5x. The direction was right, but it’s still a long way from 5–10x. More importantly, there’s still been no official announcement of any FIMA rule changes—the main switch hasn’t even been flipped. BTC is still 33% below last October’s high, and ETH is 49% below.
My approach is not to guess which way prices will go, but to watch three signals: whether FIMA rules actually change; whether USDe supply returns to $7.5 billion (the threshold for ENA’s buyback switch; it’s only at $5 billion now, half a billion? no, $2.5 billion short); and whether USD/JPY and gold show sustained unusual moves. Money usually moves faster than announcements.
Until those signals appear, this article is just an analytical framework for me, not a trading instruction.
One more thing: the original article said USDe’s circulating supply had fallen 75% from its peak, but actual on-chain data puts it at around 66% (DefiLlama, October 7). Not a huge difference, but even figures from big influencers should be checked before you cite them.
$BTC $ETH $ENA