In early August, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published a long-form article (Yen-quake). His central thesis was that the U.S. and Japan would work together to guide the yen higher—not by having the Bank of Japan raise interest rates, but by revamping the Fed’s FIMA Repo Facility. Japan would use its U.S. Treasury holdings as collateral to obtain dollars from the Fed, then buy yen. This process would effectively expand the Fed’s balance sheet, and the additional dollar liquidity would ultimately drive up hard assets such as $BTC . He also judged $BTC and $ETH to be undervalued, and singled out $ENA as having room for a 5–10x recovery over the coming months.
Two months have passed, making this a good time to take stock:
What has happened:
· $ENA rose from about $0.09 when the post was published to about $0.23, roughly 2.5x—right directionally, but still far from “5–10x.”
· Gold did indeed react early, as the article said, and strengthened ahead of time.
What hasn’t happened:
· As of October 12, there has been no official announcement that the FIMA cap ($60 billion per counterparty) has been removed. This is the master switch for the entire analysis—and it hasn’t been flipped.
· $BTC The current price is about $83,900, still roughly 33% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,198; $ETH is about $2,535, roughly 49% below its high.
One easily overlooked detail:
The article says USDe’s circulating supply has fallen 75% from its peak, while on-chain data (DefiLlama, October 7) shows a peak of about $14.7 billion and a current value of about $5 billion, a decline of roughly 66%. The figures aren’t too far apart, but when citing a big influencer’s post, every number is worth checking for yourself.
My view: this is a macro call that may have been right on direction but was clearly wrong on timing. Rather than guess whether prices will rise or fall, keep an eye on three signals you can verify yourself:
1. Whether the FIMA rules have been changed (Federal Reserve announcements and weekly balance sheet)—this is the master switch; until it’s flipped, all projections are hypothetical;
2. Whether USDe’s supply can return to $7.5 billion—this is the threshold that triggers the $ENA buyback switch, as well as direct evidence that the protocol is recovering (currently about $5 billion, a 51% shortfall);
3. Whether USD/JPY and gold continue to move unusually—the article itself acknowledges that capital often moves before announcements.
Until all three signals appear, I’ll treat this article as an analytical framework, not a trading instruction: the “undervalued” calls on $BTC and $ETH need to be validated by liquidity actually coming through; as for $ENA’s 5–10x potential, it has only completed the first leg so far. The value of macro analysis is in telling you “what to watch,” not deciding “what to do” for you.
Invalidation conditions and risks:
· If the FIMA rules remain unchanged for a prolonged period, or Japan takes the path of raising rates or selling U.S. Treasuries, the entire analysis falls apart.
· $ENA is currently valued at about 14x annualized fees (compared with about 6x for Sky and Aave), and roughly 3 billion ENA tokens were just unlocked on October 5, creating real supply pressure; USDe’s supply needs to return to $7.5 billion to trigger buybacks, and it is currently about 51% short of that level.
· Hayes himself has publicly acknowledged that his short-term predictions have a limited hit rate. His macro framework may be useful, but his price targets need to be independently verified.